Mexican drug lord: Why Arturo Beltran Levya's death matters

Calderon approach strengthened

Mr. Toledo, however, says that Beltrán Leyva’s death will strengthen Calderón and his strategy of using the military.
“This supports the idea that the armed forces are the only true instrument that the government has to fight an enemy of the dimension of organized crime,” he says.

Jose Reveles, an analyst who specializes in security and organized crime, says that the operation could mark a change in strategy, noting the Navy used intelligence from other sources in the raid and it came several days after the US government gave Mexico five helicopters to aid its fight against organized crime.

In addition to closer cooperation with US authorities in fighting drug traffickers, Mr. Reveles cited closer links in recent years with Colombia and France as well.
“This would seem to be an announcement of a strategy shift in fighting narco- traffickers,” Reveles says, adding: “There’s a globalization of drug trafficking and also a globalization of the fight against it.”

Will the cartel splinter?

However, violence could increase in the short term as lower level members of the so-called Beltrán Leyva cartel fight among each other to take control of the lucrative business.

“As a tactical blow, this could be seen as a success for the military,” says Jose Antonio Crespo, a historian and political analyst who works for the Center for Investigation and Economic Training, a Mexican think tank. “The problem is the global vision of the strategy: What is this going to produce?” he says.
He cites the arrest of Benjamin Arellano Félix and the death of his brother Ramón Arellano Felix in 2002, which led to the splintering of the once powerful Tijuana cartel and greater violence as rivals within the cartel fought for control.

“One of two things is going to happen, either [Beltrán Leyva’s] going to be replaced by a lieutenant or the cartel will become divided under different leaders who face off and the violence increases,” Mr. Crespo says.

Beltran Leyva split with Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, seen as Mexico’s most powerful drug kingpin and the head of the Sinaloa Cartel, in early 2008. The Beltrán Leyva organization is said to be allied with the Zetas, a criminal ring founded by Mexican army turncoats who are especially strong on Mexico’s Gulf Coast. Beltrán Leyva’s organization also maintains a strong presence in Sinaloa and Morelos, the state south of the Mexican capital, where Cuernavaca is located.

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