Is Sarah Palin's political career kaput?

Sarah Palin has decided not to run for president, and that’s probably a wise choice. At this point it’s really too late for her to put together a full-on national campaign. Plus, her numbers weren’t looking good.

One-third of Republican voters view her unfavorably, according to a just-released CBS poll. Bring in Democrats and independents, and half the US electorate thinks negative thoughts when they hear the word “Palin”.

With numbers like that, it’s hard to see how she could have won.

Yes, she might have won a primary or two. But look at the head-to-head matchups. Right now a Mitt Romney-President Obama race would be very close, according to the RealClearPolitics rolling average of major surveys. The two are essentially tied.

But Palin vs. Obama? That would be a blow-out. Obama leads her by almost 13 points, at 51.8 percent to 39 percent.

Given her current standing, if she’d gone ahead and run – and lost – her personal brand would have been damaged, argues Brian Montopoli of CBS News. By continuing to snow machine above the fray, she maintains her image and the market for her speeches and appearances on Fox News, Montopoli writes.

“Ultimately, it’s impossible to know for sure whether her long presidential flirtation was serious. But one thing we can say with confidence is that her decision to end it – finally – was almost certainly good news for Palin Inc.,” he says.

Well, maybe. But we’d argue that a run, instead of damaging the Palin brand, would have revealed damage that has already occurred. Isn’t it possible that, given her low standing in the polls, her national political career was already over?

Look, don’t get us wrong – there’s still going to be a huge demand for all things Palin. She’s cultivated a cadre of committed Mama Grizzly supporters. She’s got an indefinable something. An I-don’t-care-what-you-think-I’m-gonna-say attitude that will always attract attention.

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