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Another poll shows same result: Obama, McCain tied

By Jimmy Orr / September 9, 2008



It appeared as though we could go five minutes without a new poll being released. Wrong. A new poll is out and the results are the same.

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It's a tie. Barack Obama and John McCain are deadlocked according to a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. Obama does have a one point lead (47 percent to 46 percent) but with the 3.3 percent margin of error, the race is a toss-up.

Palin excitement

As noted earlier, the more you dig into a poll the more you can find. For example, the "enthusiasm factor" -- which is how excited the voters are for a candidate -- shows big movement for the McCain-Palin team.

The enthusiasm factor thus far for John McCain has been lackluster, especially when compared to Obama's supporters. However, with the addition of Sarah Palin to McCain's ticket, excitement has increased significantly -- going up three times the amount from just one month ago.

But compared to the enthusiasm that Obama supporters have for their candidate, McCain's numbers still pale in comparison -- 55 percent for Obama to 34 percent for McCain.

Women wobble

Another notable excerpt from the poll is the movement among women. An earlier poll, the Washington Post/USA Today poll, showed a sizable shift among white women to the McCain-Palin ticket -- some 20 percentage points.

There is similar movement - not quite as dramatic - in this poll. It shows Obama's lead among women shrinking from 14 points a month ago to 4 points currently. The poll also shows McCain actually leading Obama among women in the 18-49 age group by three points.

The pollsters credit Sarah Palin for the increase. And although Democratic pollster Peter Hart compared Palin's meteoric rise in the polls to hitting a "gusher," he warns of a possible quick burnout.

He recalled a similar bounce after Walter Mondale unveiled Geraldine Ferraro as his running mate in 1984. “The faster they rise, the steeper they descend.”

McBush

As for the "agent of change" argument, Obama seems to be winning in that category. The poll shows McCain having a difficult time distancing himself from President George W. Bush

Seventy-four percent believe McCain would closely follow Bush’s programs and policies. That's virtually unchanged from August, when 77 percent believed that about the GOP nominee.

It is unlikely the Obama campaign is going to back off on this strategy. Earlier today, the Obama campaign released a new commercial mocking the "maverick image" the McCain campaign is playing up with the seemingly ever-present "McCain voted with Bush 90 percent of the time" tagline (see video below).

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