Government is serious. Democracy is sacred. And then there is politics the way it is actually played. The Vote blog looks at politics the way the players talk about it among themselves after work.
US President Barack Obama, who won a second term in office by defeating Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, waves before addressing supporters during his election night victory rally in Chicago. (Jeff Haynes/Reuters)
Election 2012 results Liveblog: In Senate, Democrats ward off challenges
Wednesday 3:21 a.m.
The GOP fell short in its attempts to take the Senate on election day, losing key battles in at least four states. In Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren, the staunchly liberal Harvard professor, defeated one-term incumbent Scott Brown in a hard-fought race, becoming the Bay State's first female senator.
In what is also viewed by liberals as a victory for women, Democrat Joe Donnelly of Indiana defeated Republican Richard Mourdock, who seems to have alienated female voters when he asserted that pregnancies that result from rape are divinely ordained.
In Wisconsin, former Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin, a Democrat, narrowly beat former Republican governor Tommy Thompson. When she takes office, Baldwin will be the first openly gay member of the US Senate.
And in Pennsylvania, Democratic Senator Bob Casey held his own against political newcomer and coal executive Tom Smith, who outspent Casey by almost $8 million.
The votes are still being counted in the Senate races in North Dakota and Montana, both states with Democratic incumbents.
Wednesday 2:40 a.m.
US Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-Ill.) handily won reelection Tuesday, leading his challengers with 68 percent of the vote. Jackson is currently hospitalized at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn. for bipolar disorder. He has been absent from his office since early June.
In a statement, Mr. Jackson said he was “humbled and moved by the support shown today. … Once the doctors approve my return to work, I will continue to be the progressive fighter you have known for years … My family and I are grateful for your many heartfelt prayers and kind thoughts. I continue to feel better every day and look forward to serving you.”
Jackson is currently the subject of two federal probes into alleged misconduct. A House Ethics Committee is investigating whether Jackson tried to bribe Blagojevich for an appointment to the seat, or at least tried to engage in the process through an emissary. Jackson denies the charges. Jackson is also reportedly under investigation by the Federal Bureau of Investigation for improperly using campaign funds to decorate his Washington home, according to the Chicago Sun-Times.
-- Mark Guarino
Wednesday 2:16 a.m.
Three senate races still too close to call:
Election night was a big win for Democratic senators, as Republicans fell well short of their goal of overtaking the Senate.
But at 2 am, three races – in Montana, North Dakota, and Nevada – were still too close to call.
Even if all of those races go to Republicans, Democrats will finish the night with 51 seats, counting two Independents expected to caucus with them.
But at the moment, the Democratic candidates are leading – narrowly – in both Montana and North Dakota.
Nevada’s is the closest of the three races, with incumbent Dean Heller, the Republican appointed to fill John Ensign’s vacated seat when he resigned following a scandal, currently leading by 1 percentage point.
His challenger, Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley, has significant ethics issues of her own but had managed to narrow the race in recent weeks.
If she prevails, it will likely be due in part to President Obama’s coattails, and to a strong Latino vote.
That the race in North Dakota is so close, meanwhile – and currently seems to be going the way of Democrat Heidi Heitkamp, the former state attorney general – is particularly striking, given that North Dakota is a solidly red state that voted for Mitt Romney by 20 points.
But Ms. Heitkamp is a popular centrist who has been vocal about her disagreements with Obama.
-- Amanda Paulson
Wednesday 2:02 a.m.
The president embraces his family and Vice President Joe Biden after his nearly 25-minute speech. Red, white, and blue confetti falls as Bruce Springsteen’s “We Take Care of Our Own” plays.
Wednesday 1:59 a.m.
President Obama mentions “hope,” his theme from the 2008 campaign, several times during his acceptance speech for reelection. This time, however, the theme references events from the last four years: the wreckage of Superstorm Sandy and the economic wreckage of the recession. “Despite all the hardship we’ve been through … I’ve never been more hopeful about our future,” he says. “I’m not talking about blind optimism … I have always believed hope is that stubborn thing inside us that insists … that something better awaits us.”
Wednesday 1:56 a.m.
“Our economy is recovered. A decade of war has ended … and if I earned your vote or not, I have listened to you, I have learned from you. And you have made me a better president,” Obama says, who adds he will return to White House more “inspired than ever.”
Wednesday 1:49 a.m.
President Obama enters with his family to Stevie Wonder’s “Signed, Sealed, Delivered I’m Yours.” He pauses before starting to the chants of “four more years.”
“We are an American family and we will rise and fall together as one nation and one people,” he says. “We know in our hearts, the best is yet to come.”
President says he talked with Mitt Romney and congratulated him “for a hard fought campaign.” He said the nation should “honor and applaud” the Romney’s family commitment to public service and that he will sit down with him in future weeks.
“I know political campaigns can sometimes seem small and even silly … Democracies in a nation of 300 million can be messy and complicated,” Obama says. “That won’t change after tonight. And it shouldn’t. Our arguments we have are a mark of our liberty.”
Wednesday 1:34 a.m.
POTUS motorcade left the Fairmont Hotel in downtown Chicago about 12 minutes ago and headed to McCormick Place.
Wednesday 1:23 a.m.
At Chicago’s McCormick Place, chants of “USA” take over as the crowd waits for the president’s entrance. And then, old school R&B — “Groove Me Baby” by King Floyd and “Mr. Big Stuff” by Jean Knight.
-- Mark Guarino
Wednesday 1:08 a.m.
Mitt Romney’s concession speech in Boston forced the jubilant crowd at Chicago’s McCormick Place to quiet down and listen. But nothing compared to the video that followed — a testimonial to President Obama’s common touch with voters. For the first time in hours, the convention floor is almost silent.
– Mark Guarino
Wednesday 1:03 a.m.
Some major social changes are faring well in some states via ballot initiatives, particularly in the areas of gay marriage and marijuana use.
It’s a very strong night for gay-rights supporters, as both Maine and Maryland voted to legalize gay marriage. Votes in Washington and Minnesota (in the latter, voters are deciding not whether to legalize gay marriage but whether to prohibit it in the state’s constitution) are still too close to call, but gay-marriage supporters are currently leading in Washington.
Massachusetts voters, meanwhile, voted to allow medical usage of marijuana – joining 17 other states – and Colorado and Washington became the first states to allow recreational usage of marijuana.
-- Amanda Paulson
Wednesday 12:55 a.m.
Electronic voting-machine jams, breakdowns, and glitches were strewn across the Election Night landscape, creating long lines when machines simply broke down.
In at least one case, a viral YouTube video purported to show a Pennsylvania machine "flipping" a vote cast for President Obama into a vote for Mitt Romney, writes Mark Clayton.
Check out the range of voting machine problems in the rest of the story.
Wednesday 12:43 a.m.
Elizabeth Warren came on strong in the homestretch to win one of the highest-profile Senate races of 2012, ousting incumbent Republican Scott Brown of Massachusetts.
The New England state's largely Democratic electorate, coupled with Warren's pulling women voters to her side, proved too much for Senator Brown to overcome, writes Mark Trumbull.
Read the full story here
Wednesday 12:40 a.m.
President Obama was headed for almost certain reelection, Democrats retained control of the Senate, and Republicans retained control of the House Tuesday night, in a presidential election that, while close, seemed to go the president’s way from the beginning of the evening and was called far earlier than many people expected, writes Amanda Paulson.
“A lot of it comes down to the economy,” says Jack Pitney, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College in California. “If the economy were stronger the president would be doing better, if it were weaker Mitt Romney might [have won]. But it was just good enough to push the president over the finish line.”
Expect a lot of finger-pointing in coming days as Republican insiders decide where to lay blame: whether with Romney, considered a weak, gaffe-prone candidate by many, or with his campaign managers, or somewhere else.
Read the rest of the story here.
IN PICTURES: Election Day 2012 - America Votes!
Wednesday 12:36 a.m.
Early returns portend a good night for abortion rights advocates.
NARAL Pro-Choice America points to these Senate and House races in which Democrats prevailed: Chris Murphy over Linda McMahon to fill the seat of retiring Sen. Joseph Lieberman in Connecticut, Elizabeth Warren over incumbent Scott Brown in Massachusetts, Sen. Claire McCaskill defeating Republican challenger Todd Akin, and Tammy Duckworth over incumbent Rep. Joe Walsh in Illinois.
NARAL Pro-Choice America President Nancy Keenan’s statement in the McCaskill-Akin race echoed her statements in the other races as well.
“I congratulate the McCaskill campaign for a job well done,” she said. “Sen. McCaskill’s victory over anti-choice Todd Akin is another sign that voters are tired of the War on Women. Voters want leaders like Claire McCaskill who will protect and defend women’s reproductive freedom, not Akin, whose shocking views on women and reproductive rights earned him nationwide scorn. We, along with our affiliate NARAL Pro-Choice Missouri, look forward to continuing work with Sen. McCaskill as she stands up for pro-choice again in her next term.”
As those election results were coming in, several TV networks were projecting the re-election of President Obama to a second term.
Ms. Keenan quickly put out another statement:
“In 2008, NARAL Pro-Choice America PAC was the first major pro-choice organization to endorse Sen. Obama for president and we are extremely proud of the progress he has made in the last four years – from passing Obamacare to guaranteeing contraceptive coverage for women nationwide to appointing two new women to the Supreme Court to blocking a grant shutdown over Planned Parenthood funding,” Keenan said. “We look forward to four more years of progressive, commonsense policies – and hopefully an end to the divisive War on Women that anti-choice lawmakers have waged.”
Tuesday 11:58 p.m.
CNN reports that Mitt Romney is not ready to concede defeat, despite projections by various news organizations that the race is over. Romney stayed out of sight late Tuesday as news organizations including The Associated Press announced that President Barack Obama had won a second term.
Dejected Romney supporters milled around a hotel ballroom where the Republican hopeful had planned to declare victory and groaned as key battlegrounds moved Obama's way.
Obama's victory in closely fought Ohio narrowed Romney's path to the 270 electoral vote. The Democrat also was declared the winner in other swing states including New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Colorado and Iowa. Michigan and Pennsylvania, which Republicans hoped to put in play, stayed in Obama's camp as well. Florida and Virginia remained too close to call.
Romney supporters cheered a win in North Carolina, which Obama captured four years ago. But it was a rare prize in an evening that broadly favored the presidency, reported the Associated Press.
IN PICTURES: Election Day 2012 - America Votes!
Tuesday 11:25 p.m.
CNN projects that Barack Obama will win the electoral vote. Fox News and CNN call Ohio for Obama.
Tuesday 11:24 p.m.
Exit polls are revealing more about voters and the issues that influenced their decision in the presidential race.
Associated Press exit polls show about half the voters surveyed blame former president George W. Bush for the nation’s economic problems, compared to about 40 percent who say President Obama is more at fault – good news for the incumbent.
Still, exit polling by CNN and other news sources confirms that a large majority of voters see the economy as the nation’s biggest problem with most of those listing unemployment as their greatest personal concern. Broken down by who they voted for, voters predictably say Romney or Obama is better prepared to right the economy.
As it has for many months, the Affordable Care Act – “Obamacare” – continues to be a contentious issue, deeply dividing Americans, according to early exit polls: while 45 percent want at least some of it repealed, 47 percent would keep it as it is or broaden its provisions.
Exit polls also show that Obama’s response to superstorm Sandy didn’t influence most peoples’ votes.
On one issue sure to interest federal authorities cracking down on state-approved medical marijuana programs, exit polls show Colorado’s Amendment 64 winning, according to the Washington Post. The measure would legalize growth and possession of small amounts of marijuana for recreational use.
In a race this close, how independent voters break could be critical to the outcome.
At the moment, Politico.com reports that Mitt Romney leads among independents in two battleground states: 56-40 percent in Ohio and 3-41 in Virginia. ABC News exit polls find that independents are siding with Mitt Romney in nearly every battleground state – Ohio, Virginia, Florida, and Wisconsin – but Obama has been able to make up for it with gains among Hispanics and women.
– Brad Knickerbocker
Tuesday 11:05 p.m.
With only 49 percent of Wisconsin precincts in, the US Senate race between former governor and Republican candidate Tommy Thompson and US Rep. Tammy Baldwin remains a dead heat. Mr. Thompson is currently leading Ms. Baldwin, 50 to 47 percent.
Exit polling showed Thompson leading Baldwin 51 to 47 percent, according to the Journal-Sentinel in Milwaukee. Both candidates are vying to fill the seat vacated by Democratic Senator Herb Kohl, who announced his retirement after five terms.
Baldwin was once the frontrunner in the race until last month, when Thompson’s poll numbers increased following the first presidential debate between President Obama and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney.
Outside money is also figuring heavily into the race. According to the Federal Election Commission, independent groups on both sides of the political spectrum spent a total of $23.2 million on the race. By comparison, in the 2010 election between newcomer Ron Johnson and US Sen. Russ Feingold, independent groups spent just $3 million. The majority of the outside spending has been by groups attacking Baldwin.
-- Mark Guarino
Tuesday 10:55 p.m.
At this hour, Mitt Romney’s path to victory is looking significantly steeper.
Three states that Romney's team had seen as possible battleground states - New Hampshire and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (Paul Ryan's home state) - have gone to Obama.
"Meanwhile, the Southern battleground states – Florida, Virginia, and even North Carolina – all remain too close to call. Needless to say, those are all states Romney must win (and was, in fact, favored to win according to the most recent polling). The fact that those results are taking longer to come in is not an encouraging sign for Romney," writes Liz Marlantes.
Check out the full story here.
Tuesday 10:42 p.m.
Speaking on Fox News’ election coverage, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin said she was “crossing [her] fingers” as early election returns appeared to favor President Obama. “It is a perplexing time for many of us,” she said.
Ms. Palin, John McCain’s running mate in 2008, said that the “Bain Capital ads, I think, really hurt Romney.” In the spring, the Obama campaign ran a heavy schedule of attack ads in battleground states stressing Gov. Romney’s work at a venture capital firm.
If Obama were to win re-election, Palin said it would be “a catastrophic setback to our economy.”
Palin spoke from Wasilla, Alaska, and was interviewed by Greta Van Susteren.
-- David Cook
Tuesday 10:25 p.m.
Republican dreams of victory in Pennsylvania will remain just that -- dreams -- for the next four years. Obama took the state's 20 delegate votes.
The state where Mitt Romney made an sudden effort to win in the campaign’s final days – holding two rallies there in the past week and pumping in several million dollars in advertising after having left the state alone for months – was called for President Obama Tuesday night before even a third of the Keystone State’s precincts had been counted. Republicans have not won the state in a presidential race since 1988.
Mr. Obama looks to be running up victories similar to his performance in 2008 in key urban locales like Philadelphia, where he’s currently crushing Romney by better than four to one. In Bucks County – a “collar county” around Philadelphia, which strategists on both sides predicted would be a bellwether of the less-partisan suburban voters either candidate would need to win – Obama leads Romney 54 percent to 45 percent. The Republican party’s hope for a surge from voters in coal country in western Pennsylvania, meanwhile, did not materialize.
– David Grant
Tuesday 9:30 p.m.
Look Ma! No concession speech?
"We are still waiting on voting results from key states, but in the meantime, we couldn’t resist commenting on a statement Mitt Romney made to reporters on his plane Tuesday evening: He said he’d “only written one speech at this point” – meaning, a victory speech, but not a concession speech," writes The Christian Science Monitor's Liz Marlantes.
To which Liz asks: Really?
"We have to assume that Mr. Romney was either being disingenuous or picking his words very, very carefully – so that while, perhaps technically speaking, he hasn’t written a concession speech, one such speech may in fact have already been prepared by his speechwriters."
What about President Obama? He said: “You always have two speeches prepared because you can’t take anything for granted.”
IN PICTURES: Election Day 2012 - America Votes!
Tuesday 9:11 p.m.
Early exit polls in the presidential race give a picture of who’s voting for Mitt Romney, who for President Obama. The results are pretty much as predicted, according to these numbers gathered by CNN.
Of some 23,000 respondents, 53 percent of the men and 44 percent of the women voted for Romney. Flip the numbers for Obama: 54 percent of the women and 45 percent of the men voted to give the President a second term.
By age group, the older the voter, the more likely he or she is to go for Romney. The former Massachusetts governor got most of those over 45; Obama won most of those ages 18 to 44.
Looking at the size of the place where these voters live, Obama got most urbanites (61 percent to Romney’s 37 percent), while Romney won most of those from rural areas 59 to 39. The split among those in the suburbs was closer, with 51 percent for Romney, 47 percent for Obama.
– Brad Knickerbocker
Tuesday 8:53 p.m.
In Connecticut, more than $40 million of her own money couldn’t save Republican Senate candidate Linda McMahon from being tapped out early on election night.
Rep. Chris Murphy (D) got off to a slow start in the contest, with Ms. McMahon but was called the winner of the race to replace Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) with just three percent of the vote having been counted on Tuesday. (Representative Murphy, for his part, raised $9 million.)
McMahon, who, with her husband Vince, built the World Wrestling Entertainment franchise, spent $90 million of her own money in two ultimately unsuccessful races for the Senate in 2010 and 2012.
McMahon won “August and September largely because Murphy seemed unprepared to respond to attacks from her campaign. As a result, she was running ahead of Murphy, forcing Democrats to pour millions into the race,” wrote Jennifer Duffy, chief Senate analyst at The Cook Political Report.
Democrats responded with more than $7 million in firepower into the Nutmeg State, which appears to be more than enough to get Murphy across the finish line in a deep blue state.
-- David Grant
Tuesday 8:35 p.m.
In US Senate races, Republicans hoping to wrest control of the Senate from Democrats got their first disappointment of the night as Angus King, the former Maine governor, won his Senate Race.
Republicans had hoped that Democratic candidate Cynthia Dill would siphon off enough votes to allow Republican candidate Charlie Summers to eke out a victory. Mr. King, an independent, has not said which party he will caucus with, but most people predict that he’ll align himself with Democrats.
In Florida, Democrat Bill Nelson won reelection – not a big surprise, but still a disappointment for Republicans who had slim hopes that US Rep. Connie Mack could manage a win.
Meanwhile, votes out of Indiana, Massachusetts, and Virginia both show the closely watched Senate races in those states in too-close-to-call territory.
-- Amanda Paulson
Tuesday 8:22 p.m.
The minute the 8 p.m. poll closings came – the largest block of the evening – CNN and other networks called a number of expected states for each candidates.
In President Obama’s column: Maine, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware, Maryland, Illinois, and the District of Columbia joined Vermont, which had been called earlier for Obama.
Mitt Romney now has Oklahoma, along with South Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky, Georgia and Indiana (and, according to some news organizations, Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee).
The current electoral count: 64 for Obama and 56 for Romney.
But, as expected, the vote is extremely tight in key states like Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. Some exit polls in Virginia and Ohio seem positive for Obama, but be wary of any preliminary results in states where the margin is so close.
-- Amanda Paulson
Tuesday 8:15 pm
Obama has a projected 65 electoral votes, according to the Associated Press.
Romney has a projected 40 electoral votes.
Romney has Oklahoma, Kentucky, Indiana, West Virginia, and South Carolina.
Obama has Illinois, Vermont, Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, Delaware, and Washington D.C.
Still too close to call: Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia.
Tuesday 7:47 p.m.
Even though polls have now closed in they key battleground states of Ohio and Virginia, it may be some time before it’s possible to know who won in either state. (In Ohio, in particular, the uncertainty could drag on more than a week, if provisional ballots need to be counted.)
In the meantime, here are some tidbits about both states’ electorates from early exit polls:
– There is a big racial divide among Virginia voters. White voters (who make up about 70 percent of the electorate) have been voting for Romney over Obama by about a 64 to 35 percent margin. Among black voters, on the other hand, 94 percent are for Obama.
– Virginia exit polls also show a gender and age divide, with male voters favoring Romney 53 percent to 45 percent and women going for Obama, 53 percent to 46 percent. Obama led by 16 points among the youngest voters, under age 25, and by 25 points among voters aged 25-29. Romney, on the other hand, had a 14-point advantage among voters 65 and older.
– In Ohio, exit polls show that Obama supporters hold very different views on the economy compared with those voting for Romney. While nearly all Romney’s supporters say that the economy is in poor or not-so-good shape, Obama’s supporters are fairly evenly split on whether the economy is in poor or good shape. In addition, 3 in 4 Romney supporters in Ohio say that Obama is to blame for the current economic situation, while about 90 percent of Obama’s Ohio supporters blame President George W. Bush.
-- Amanda Paulson
Tuesday, 7:35 pm
West Virginia is now in the Romney column, adding 5 electoral votes. Romney now has 13, Obama eight. Several news organizations are giving Romney Indiana and South Carolina but the Associated Press hasn't called either of those yet.
Tuesday 7:31 p.m.
The economy is the top issue for voters by a huge margin, but the next biggest issue – cited as the most important one by 17 percent of voters in exit polls – is healthcare.
But when it comes to what they want on healthcare, they’re split.
Forty-five percent of voters wanted to repeal some or all of Obama’s signature healthcare law, while 47 percent wanted to keep it as is or expand it.
And only a quarter of voters want to repeal all of the law, as Mitt Romney favors doing.
Exit polls also show, though, that a growing number of people believe the government is overstepping its bounds.
Fifty-three percent of those polled said that was the case – about 10 percent higher than exit polls showed in 2008.
-- Amanda Paulson
Tuesday 7:25 p.m
The Tea Party Express, the prominent organization that has spent thousands of dollars promoting conservative candidates around the country, is claiming to play a major role in Election 2012 – despite evidence that the political insurgency has stumbled along the way, as reported today by the Monitor’s David Grant.
In an e-mail today, the organization boasts that it is “working tirelessly today to get-out-the-vote for Governor Romney and other conservative candidates.”
“Tea Party Express, the nation’s largest tea party political action committee, has motivated fiscal conservatives with bus tours, rallies, presidential debates and advertising throughout the 2012 cycle,” the e-mail continued.
“Tea Party Express Chairman Amy Kremer said, ‘In 2010, America watched a protest movement become the most powerful political movement in recent history. We have focused in key states and generated thousands of Tea Party activists for Governor Mitt Romney’s campaign for President and congressional races across the country. Romney made his first tea party appearance at the Tea Party Express rally in New Hampshire.
‘There is a lot of wishful thinking on Democrats’ part that the tea party has disappeared, but they don’t see the army of tea party activists that are manning the precincts, phone banks and victory centers. They also fail to note that we are on the verge of defeating an incumbent President, gaining seats in the Senate, and retaining the historic majority in the House. It doesn’t sound like we have gone away, as much as the establishment of both parties would like.
‘Like in 2010, it is the efforts of these newly engaged tea party conservatives that will drive victories across the nation,’ Kremer concluded.”
A few more hours will tell if that claim is founded in fact.
– Brad Knickerbocker
Tuesday, 7:05 p.m.
The first results are in Kentucky has been projected for Mitt Romney. Vermont is now in the Obama column.
Neither, of course, is a surprise. But polls are now closed in Virginia, the first state that could give anxious viewers their first real indication of how the night will go. Watch the Virginia results closely, and then – at 7:30 – Ohio, and Florida at 8 pm.
Those three states are the most critical prizes, and should provide some early indications – depending on how close they are, and how long it takes to call them – on how the night will go.
– Amanda Paulson
Tuesday, 7:01 p.m.
While voters were still casting their ballots to elect the next president, work was already underway to build a viewing stand outside the White House, where the nation’s new chief executive will view his inaugural parade.
Late last week, a chain link fence was installed in front of the White House on Pennsylvania Avenue, partially blocking the iconic view of the fountain on the north lawn of the executive mansion. Inside the fencing, workers spent Election Day building the wooden foundation on which the reviewing stand will rest.
On the afternoon of Monday, January 21, the president elected for the next four years will sit behind bulletproof glass with his family and watch military units as well as bands from around the country celebrate his inauguration. It is a tradition that goes back to George Washington’s day.
--David Cook
Tuesday, 6:55 p.m.
When will someone win the presidential election so we can all go to sleep?
The first point at which something exciting can occur might be 7 p.m. That’s when the polls in six Eastern states close, with Virginia being the most important. Formerly solid red, Virginia has become much more of a swing state due to the fast growth of the D.C. suburbs in the northern part of the state.
President Obama won there in 2008 by more than eight percentage points, but averages of major polls have the Old Dominion as a tossup in 2012, writes The Christian Science Monitor's Peter Grier.
Mitt Romney badly needs Virginia’s 13 electoral votes if he’s to put together the 270 he needs for victory. That means that if the networks call it quickly for Mr. Obama, it might be time to start plumping the bedroom pillows, says Grier.
For a run down of more early indicators, check out the rest of this DCDecoder post.
Tuesday 6:41 p.m.
Reports of some election glitches and long voting lines have been trickling in from numerous locations, though so far, not more so than is typical in most presidential elections.
Perhaps the worst error seems to have come from Florida, where voters in Pinellas County – including St. Petersburg – received robocalls telling them that they had until Wednesday night to vote.
Apparently, the calls – which said voters could return absentee ballots until 7 pm “tomorrow” – were supposed to go out Monday morning, but an error in the system meant the calls were made Tuesday morning instead.
In Pennsylvania, meanwhile, there was apparently confusion about whether poll workers could ask voters for ID, after a judge blocked a new voter ID law from taking effect this election.
And reports have been coming in of lines several hours long at some polling locations in Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and New York and New Jersey, where much of the voting infrastructure has been disrupted due to Hurricane Sandy. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) issued an order allowing New Yorkers affected by the storm to vote anywhere in the state, but reports were still coming in from New York City Tuesday of some lines several-hours long, confusion over polling places, and broken scanners.
-- Amanda Paulson
Tuesday, 6:30 p.m.
Obama family is gathering for dinner in Chicago, and to await the election results together.
Before election returns begin flowing in tonight, President Obama and first lady Michelle Obama will have dinner in Chicago with their daughters, Malia and Sasha, and with Mrs. Obama’s mother, Marian Robinson.
The "First Daughters," who attend Sidwell Friends School in Washington, are flying in after school to join their parents, according to a report from the White House press pool accompanying the President in Chicago. Mrs. Robinson, who lives with the First Family at the White House, is also accompanying them.
After dinner, the First Lady’s brother, Craig and his family along with the President’s sister, Maya and her family, will join the
president to watch election night returns, says a corrected pool report. (updated at 6:55 pm)
--David Cook
Tuesday 6:26 p.m.
New York magazine has provided a useful service for political junkies. It’s posted what it calls “An Exhaustive Collection of Presidential Pundit Predictions.”
There they are for all the shame or glory: Dozens of prominent commentators, plus a few of the top pollsters, predicting not only who’ll win the presidential race, but also the margin of victory in the popular vote and by how many electoral votes. It's sort of like picking your “sweet sixteen” for college basketball’s "March Madness," only for nerds of a different subject.
Writes Adam Pasick for New York magazine’s “Daily Intel”:
Every four years, our nation falls under the sway of a tribe of political Brahmins who boast of their ability to tell us who is going to be president, and why. The moment the election is over, the magic spell of the pundit (from Sanskrit: someone who is erudite in various subjects; thanks Wikipedia!) is broken, and we can all wallow in the very wrongness of all but a very few of them. So, to prepare for that lovely moment of schadenpunditfreude, Daily Intel has collected all known predictions by the political chattering class from our Instant Politics participants, the Washington Post, the Awl, the Blaze, and Twitter, among other sources, tabulated by electoral and popular vote prognostications for your convenience. Whatever happens, make sure to get your gloating in quickly. As Hot Air's Ed Morrissey told us: ‘If I'm wrong, this e-mail will self-destruct in five campaign-commercial seconds.’
-- Brad Knickerbocker
Tuesday 5:55 p.m.
CBS says exit polls show the economy is the top issue, health care is a distant second.
The official CBS News twitter site is offering some early details from the national exit poll conducted by the major networks and wire service as voters left precincts.
The economy was seen as the most important issue for 60 percent of those surveyed, CBS says. Health care was a distant second, ranking most important for 17 percent of those who responded to questions, while concerns about the federal budget deficit were most important for 15 percent of today’s voters.
When asked which economic issue mattered most to them, 40 percent of those who took part in the exit poll mentioned unemployment. Close behind was the issue of rising prices, the most pressing economic concern for 37 percent. Tax issues were in third place, cited as most important by 13 percent.
--David Cook
Tuesday 5:40 p.m.
What if the electoral college ends in a 269-269 delegate tie? Ugh!
"If the latest polls are right, President Obama could lose the popular vote on Election Day, yet score big in the Electoral College, racking up well beyond the 270 votes needed to win the presidency. The GOP's Mitt Romney has a steeper path to victory that requires a near sweep of 2012 battleground states.
But there are at least five combinations of wins and losses in toss-up states that could also produce a tie, 269 to 269, when the Electoral College convenes on Jan. 6. It's also possible that one or two so-called "unfaithful electors" could vote contrary to the results in their state.
In such a case, a Congress widely viewed as dysfunctional would choose the next occupant of the White House, with no requirement to respect the popular vote," writes Gail Russell Chaddock.
Check out Ms. Chaddock's look at four ways the presidential race could end in 269-269 tie.
Okay, but what happens if both candidates get the exact same number of votes in a swing state? Randall Munroe, creator of the popular webcomic xkcd, explores this unlikely outcome in his "What If?" series. He found that, in most of the swing states, the outcome would be determined randomly, by drawing lots. He calculates that the odds of this happening in one state is about 1 in 100,000. The odds of this happening in all nine states is about one in a quattuordecillion, that is, a 1 followed by 45 zeroes.
Tuesday 5:35 p.m.
Do you need a photo ID to vote in Pennsylvania?
As The Christian Science Monitor reported last month, a federal judged ruled that "election officials may continue to ask prospective voters to show photo ID at the polls, but that each vote must be counted regardless of whether a valid photo ID is presented.
The judge said that any voters lacking proper ID would be given the opportunity to cast a provisional ballot that could be verified and counted within six days of the election."
In Pennsylvania, there were reports today of election workers nonetheless demanding photo ID from voters, according to Philadelphia-based election watchdog the Committee of Seventy.
Outside one polling place in the Pittsburgh suburb of Rochester, an election worker shouted to a line of voters to "have your ID ready," the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported.
Poll watchers reported other problems around the state in the first few hours of voting, including Republican inspectors being denied access to polling places in Philadelphia.
Democrats had won the past five presidential elections in the state, including President Barack Obama's win four years ago, but a strong, late push by Republicans raised the level of drama. Pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes, the fifth-most of any state, as the Associated Press reports.
Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney staged an aggressive, last-ditch effort to erode Obama's support. Romney capped that 11th-hour sprint with an Election Day visit this afternoon to Pittsburgh, his second visit in three days to Pennsylvania.
IN PICTURES: Election Day - America Votes!
Tuesday 5:15 p.m.
You’re in the polling booth, and your smartphone is in your pocket as usual. Why not snap a photo of your completed ballot, something you could bore your grandkids with as you tell them once again how you were able to vote (a) for the first African American president or (b) the first Mormon president of the United States? Better yet, Instagram your ballot to Twitter or Facebook so all your friends and followers can see your partisan stripes.
Why not? Here’s why not, reports Kate Sheppard on the Mother Jones “Political MoJo” site.
“If you want to take photographs or shoot video inside your polling place, you must be cautious to avoid violating the law. Election laws are serious business – you could be removed from the polling place and even subject to criminal penalties. Some states like Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Texas expressly prohibit the use of photographic and recording equipment inside polling places.
In addition, a majority of states have laws prohibiting the disclosure of your own marked ballot, although the details of these laws vary significantly. As the Citizen Media Law Project points out, there's a good reason for the rules – they're intended to ‘protect voters from interference and intimidation.’ Basically they don't want you snooping on people's ballots, which makes sense. The laws differ by state, so check here for information relevant to where you live.”
MoJo also has this nifty guide to voter suppression and poll problems.
-- Brad Knickerbocker
Tuesday 5:05 p.m.
With the media (including This Intrepid Reporter) dug in at McCormick Place, and Democratic supporters starting to arrive we've caught up on the details of the "Audacity of Hoops" pickup game played at the Hope Athletic Center in East Garfield Park, on Chicago's embattled West Side.
The president played basketball this afternoon with former Chicago Bulls players Scottie Pippin and Randy Brown. Also on the team: Alxi Giannoulias, the former Illinois State Treasurer who lost his US Senate seat to Republican Mark Kirk, Obama assistant Reggie Brown, retired decathlete Mike Ramos, US Secretary of Education Arne Duncan, and close friend Marty Nesbit.
– Mark Guarino
Tuesday 4:55 p.m.
When will the polls officially close and the results start to be known?
The first polls to officially close will be in parts of Kentucky and Indiana at 6 p.m. E.S.T.
An hour later, the 2012 elections excitement will really begin as voting stations will officially close at 7 p.m. E.S.T in the key battleground state of Florida. Also closing at 7 p.m.: Virginia, Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, and the rest of Kentucky and Indiana.
At 7:30 p.m. E.S.T., voting will officially end in Ohio, North Carolina and West Virginia.
You can expect to start to see exit polling results and projected results from news organizations very soon after the polls close in each state.
And the last poll to close: Alaska, at 1 a.m. EST.
Want more on poll closing times? Check out the greenpapers.com
IN PICTURES: Election Day - America votes!
Tuesday 4:25 p.m.
In this election, don't expect a repeat of the Republican sweep of 2010 at the state level. But don't expect a Democratic sweep either.
Twenty state legislative chambers are forecast to switch parties – higher than the average of 13 that typically switch every two-year election cycle. But unlike 2010, when all 22 chambers that flipped control turned Republican, both Democrats and Republicans could make gains on Nov. 6, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), a research organization in Washington.
For Mark Guarino's full story, click here.
Tuesday 4:05 pm
For all the talk about delayed results in the presidential election, Politico.com’s Mike Allen says it’ll be an easy night with the networks calling the presidency around 11 p.m.
And on his regular morning e-mail to political junkies, here’s how Mike Allen says to know who won before the networks tell you:
“Watch Prince William and Loudoun counties in Virginia's increasingly diverse D.C. exurbs. Old Dominion polls close at 7, and the Commonwealth tends to count pretty fast.
Obama won both counties in 2008. Romney is a collar-county kind of guy, and he has to take back territory like that if he's going to win. If they split, he's in trouble. And if he loses Virginia, there's no point worrying about Ohio. Tell me who won Prince William and Loudoun, and I'll tell you whether we have President 45 or President 44, Part II.”
– Brad Knickerbocker
Tuesday 3:35 p.m.
Media outlets warn reporters: Be careful with election night tweets.
Before Election Night even got underway, news organizations warned their reporters to be careful how they use Twitter to share their thoughts about Tuesday night’s results.
In the 2012 election, Twitter became a major outlet for political reporters. It allows journalists to tweet their thoughts quickly and without having to go through an editor, so the risks for appearing biased or sharing incorrect information are significant.
On Monday evening, Wall Street Journal Assistant Managing Editor Karen Pensiero cautioned colleagues to “please remember that we have a longstanding tradition in our newsroom of refraining from partisan political activity, including partisan commentary in social media.”
The Journal memo, reprinted on Jim Romenesko’s website continued, “thanks in advance for remembering that we all have a responsibility to uphold this tradition and need to avoid even the appearance of bias, including in our choices of what we re-tweet.”
Tom Kent, standards editor for the Associated Press, warned his co-workers over the weekend to avoid retweeting data and analysis from other news organizations whose journalistic standards and skill at calling close races might not match the AP’s.
“We encourage you to retweet and post AP’s careful race-calling and explanations, and not to blindly retweet what others may be saying. It would be akin to retweeting a story by a competitor when we know we have the story dead-to-rights ourselves,” Kent said in an email co-authored by Eric Carvin, the AP’s social media editor.
Reporters at the Washington Post were warned Monday by executive editor Marcus Brauchli against appearing to call races before the Post’s decision desk did so. “Because many of you will be using social media, it’s important to keep in mind that The Post will make calls on the outcomes of specific races centrally. Until we have made calls on those key races, you should refrain from posting, tweeting or writing about a race’s outcome, except if you are attributing that assertion to other sources,” said the Post memo, obtained by Romenesko.
In addition to warning about the evils of inaccurate tweeting, the Post’s top editor also counseled journalists to be mindful that their actions could be captured on camera. “Remember that the Newsroom on election night is a public space. In addition to extensive live video reports from the newsroom, there will be cameras set up capturing the scene as we work and streaming those images,” he said.
The call from top journalistic organizations to exercise care in tweeting about politics appears to run counter to what the general public is doing. The Pew Internet and American Life Project reported Tuesday that 22 percent of registered voters have announced on a social networking site such as Facebook or Twitter how they voted.
---David Cook, Washington.
Tuesday: 2:48 p.m.
ABC News' Sr White House Correspondent. Jake Tapper tweets:
"POTUS currently playing basketball with friends and staff at Altgeld Park, an Election Day tradition/superstition."
The one time he skipped the game, the day of the New Hampshire primary in 2008, he lost badly. “We made the mistake of not playing basketball once. I can assure you we will not repeat that,” adviser Robert Gibbs told the Wall Street Journal.
Tuesday 2:20 p.m.
In case you're wondering if Romney really is a man of the people, well, on Election day, he and his running mate stopped for lunch at Wendy's in Richmond Heights, Ohio: Romney ordered a single (quarter-pound) burger, chile and a Frosty. The pool press report did not indicate whether he chose the chocolate or vanilla frosty. These are the kinds of details that could swing the election.
Actually, fast food stops are relatively common on the campaign trail. Romney visited a McDonald's after the foreign policy debate in Virginia, and visited a Wendy's in Ohio last month, where he ordered a spicy chicken sandwich, ordered a small chocolate Frosty, and sat down and helped himself to a french fry from a surprised diner.
Check out the video here.
Tuesday 2 p.m.
Can Obama get the youth vote? He's going to need it, writes Amanda Paulson.
Four years ago, President Obama got nearly 16 million votes from so-called Millennials – young voters between ages 18 and 29. Not only did they vote for him over the GOP's John McCain by more than a 2-to-1 margin, but more of them voted than in almost any previous election since 18-year-olds were granted the vote in 1972. In three states – Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana – Mr. Obama won the state because of voters under the age of 30.
This year, with polls showing the race much closer than in 2008, Obama needs that youth vote more than ever. But it’s not clear if he’ll get it, at least in the numbers he’d like.
Obama “has a number of different pathways that I think can get him [to victory], but this is an important group,” says Scott Keeter, survey director for the Pew Research Center. “And I think the fact that it’s more up for grabs, both in terms of the split in vote among young people and in terms of the enthusiasm, is one reason the Obama campaign has been stressing social issues more at the end of the campaign.”
Tuesday 1: 50 pm
All campaign aircraft lead to Ohio?
Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan crossed paths with Vice President Joe Biden on the airport tarmac in Cleveland Tuesday. While Barack Obama worked the phones and did interviews on Election Day, Romney voted in Massachusetts, then stopped the battleground state of Ohio. Biden's visit to Ohio was "unscheduled."
The rush for Ohio and its 18 electoral votes highlighted the importance of the state to both campaigns' victory plans. Polls going into Election Day showed Obama with a narrow lead there, and Romney said the eleventh-hour campaigning was meant to leave him with no regrets. "I can't imagine an election being won or lost by, let's say, a few hundred votes and you spent your day sitting around," Romney told Richmond radio station WRVA earlier in the day. "I mean, you'd say to yourself, 'Holy cow, why didn't I keep working?' And so I'm going to make sure I never have to look back with anything other than the greatest degree of satisfaction on this whole campaign," reported the Associated Press.
Romney is headed for Pennsylvania next. He's got a 2:55 pm campaign stop in Pittsburgh.
Tuesday 11:50 a.m.
Chicago has dark skies and brittle temperatures for election morning. President Obama, who arrived in his hometown at midnight, showed up at a campaign field office near his home in Hyde Park around 9 a.m., greeting volunteers and making phone calls to both campaign staffers in Wisconsin and voters in battleground states including Ohio.
“The great thing about these campaigns is after all the TV ads, all the fundraising and all the debates and all the electioneering is it comes down to this," Obama said. "One day and these incredible folks who are working so hard, making phone calls, making sure the people go out to vote,” he told reporters.
His motorcade then proceeded to a downtown hotel, where the president will be rotating through a series of television interviews.
– Mark Guarino
New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg speaks to the media during a news conference in New York in this October 26 photo. Bloomberg on Thursday endorsed President Obama for a second term, citing the importance of Obama's record on climate change, particularly in the aftermath of the devastating blow dealt to the New York area by superstorm Sandy. (Eduardo Munoz/Reuters)
Sandy's political impact: Citing climate change, Bloomberg endorses Obama (+video)
Billionaire Mayor Michael Bloomberg is not afraid of supporting political candidates of either party – as long as they support the issues he cares about.
On Thursday, in an on-line opinion piece on Bloomberg.com, the Democrat-turned-Republican-turned-Independent said hurricane Sandy had “brought the stakes of Tuesday’s presidential election into sharp relief.”
Exactly what does that mean?
In a few words, it means he is endorsing President Obama.
Cynics might say Mayor Bloomberg is thinking of who can get him the most aid to fix up New York after the devastation from the storm. Certainly New York will be asking Mr. Obama or whoever is president to pay a tab that will certainly stretch into the billions and billions of dollars.
But, that’s not what Bloomberg says made him decide to support Obama.
One of Bloomberg’s major concerns as mayor for the past 11 years has been global warming. He’s tried to lower New York City’s carbon footprint by planting more trees, getting more people to ride bikes, and looking for alternative energy supplies for one of the nation’s largest consumers of power.
From Bloomberg’s viewpoint, Obama has marched in the same direction by setting higher fuel-efficiency standards for cars and trucks, tightening controls on mercury emissions, and closing the dirtiest coal plants.
There was a time when Republican Mitt Romney was just as concerned about global warming, says Bloomberg. As governor of Massachusetts, Romney signed into law a regional cap-and-trade plan designed to reduce carbon emissions to 10 percent below 1990 levels.
Mr. Romney says he is still worried about the environment. But, as far as Bloomberg is concerned, he has “reversed course,” abandoning the cap-and-trade program he once supported.
Bloomberg says that’s not his only problem with Romney. He disagrees with the governor’s current views on abortion, Obamacare, and marriage equality for lesbians and gay men.
In another example of Bloomberg supporting people who agree with him, he has endorsed Sen. Scott Brown (R) of Massachusetts in his battle against Democrat Elizabeth Warren because of his stance on gun control. Senator Brown opposes a National Rifle Association bill that would have made it legal for someone who lives in a state with weak gun control laws to carry a concealed weapon in states like New York that have tough laws.
This is not to say Bloomberg is overjoyed with Obama.
“As president he devoted little time and effort to developing and sustaining a coalition of centrists, which doomed hope for any real progress on illegal guns, immigration, tax reform, job creation and deficit reduction,” he writes. “And, rather than uniting the country around a message of shared sacrifice, he engaged in partisan attacks and has embraced a divisive populist agenda focused more on redistributing income than creating it.”
In fact, Bloomberg says he could have voted for the 1994 and 2003 versions of Romney because “I have found the past four years to be, in a word, disappointing.”
Disappointment aside, he’s voting for Obama.
A screenshot from Lena Dunham's YouTube ad from President Obama. (YouTube)
Lena Dunham's sexy Obama ad: Youthfully alluring or bad taste?
Love it or hate it, one thing is certain about Lena “Girls” Dunham’s suggestive new ad for the Obama campaign: She has created buzz.
And buzz is good when you’re president of the United States and relying on young voters to pay attention to the fact that the election is less than two weeks away.
If you don’t know who Ms. Dunham is, the ad is clearly not meant for you. But in certain circles, she’s a rock star. Or at least an edgy, indie TV star, creator and lead character of the HBO series “Girls.”
“Your first time shouldn’t be with just anybody,” Dunham says to the camera in a giving-advice-to-a-girlfriend tone. “You want to do it with a great guy.”
She’s talking, it turns out, about her first time voting, not, um, something else. But for a full minute, she’s all about what the “first time” should be like – doing it with “someone who really cares about and understands women,” someone who cares about birth control and who brought the troops out of Iraq.
OK, so maybe it’s clear pretty soon into the one-minute video that Dunham is talking about voting for President Obama, but still. To people of a certain age – as in, people old enough to have a kid her age (like, maybe, this correspondent) – there’s a certain “ick” factor. As of 2 p.m. on Friday, the day after the ad was posted on YouTube, it had more than 275,000 views, with 5,014 “likes” and 6,807 “dislikes.”
The comments went back and forth.
“As if American women don’t already have enough disrespectful, perverted men in the form of classmates, colleagues, bosses, journalists, musicians, entertainers, film and TV writers and producers, and men we encounter anywhere we go, talking to and about us as if we were the slutty bimbos they wish us to be, we now have to hear it from the president of the United States, as well?” writes gtgirl197.
“This creeps me out in so many levels,” writes grizzlyadam26.
“Fabulous lady! Haters step aside,” writes Fishburgesa.
The conservative Independent Women’s Forum (IWF) reacted with disdain.
"This ad simply proves that the Obama campaign only knows how to speak to one specific type of woman,” writes Hadley Heath, senior policy analyst at the IWF. “And I’m proud to say I am not that type of woman.”
Members of the young Hollywood set tweeted support. “My favorite chick strikes gold again! Brilliant,” wrote Nina Dobrev, who stars in “The Vampire Diaries.”
Unfortunately for Mr. Obama, Ms. Dobrev is Canadian. But she has almost 3 million Twitter followers.
Even if a lot of people are put off by the ad, what’s the down side? It's not going to dissuade a possibly creeped-out Obama supporter from voting for him; young conservatives weren't going to vote for him anyway. And if it plants the voting idea with a few young adults in key swing states, then it will have been worth it.
For Election 2012 prognosis, look to ... Halloween masks? (+video)
Who needs Gallup and Rasmussen polls when you’ve got Barack Obama and Mitt Romney Halloween mask sales to predict the presidential election? Or if that’s too scary, try coffee-cup sales or pet names.
Yep, every four years marketers have an irresistible chance to tap into the horse race and bring in the bucks. But it seems they also sometimes tap into voters’ preferences with bizarre accuracy.
Halloween is approaching, so let’s start with masks.
According to sales by two big retailers of Halloween costumes, Mr. Obama is on track to win this year, though the race is still tight in a few states.
Spirit Halloween has accurately? predicted the past four presidential elections on the basis of mask sales. Romney and Obama masks sell for $10 to $25. BuyCostumes.com, where you can buy paper masks of the candidates and their running mates for as little as 99 cents, has correctly predicted the past three elections.
Of course, the only ID you need is a credit card, and there’s no monitoring for voter fraud. Buy as many as you’d like, retailers urge, to stack the deck in favor of your candidate.
Or perhaps you don’t care about poll results, and you’d rather buy up masks of your least favorite man for the job so you can vent your frustrations every time you see an attack ad against your guy. (The footnote says about the paper masks on Buy.com, “Eyes can be popped out.”)
As of Thursday, Obama raked in 67 percent of more than 100,000 votes on Spirithalloween.com/Vote, with Mr. Romney taking nearly 33 percent. Write-in candidate Batman had 216 votes. Once it tallies actual sales, the company will release its Presidential Index a few days before the election.
BuyCostumes.com predicted Romney would be the GOP nominee, on the basis of sales of paper masks during the primaries. (Does that mean political junkies like to prepare early for Halloween, or do they have costume balls at the conventions?)
Sales so far at BuyCostumes.com have Obama and Joe Biden ahead by a nose, with 51 percent, compared with Romney and Paul Ryan’s 49 percent. According to this poll, New Hampshire and Montana are the only toss-up states. North Carolina, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Nevada are Obama/Biden country. Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, and Florida go to Romney/Ryan.
Let's give a shout-out here to John Toole at the Eagle-Tribune in New Hampshire for some good old-fashioned shoe-leather reporting. According to his visits to local costume retailers, the mask race is still too close to call.
If you’re a coffee-drinker, you may have noticed an unscientific poll being conducted at a 7-Eleven store near you. Early voting started Sept. 6 with the availability of Red Romney coffee cups and Blue Obama cups. Voting ends Nov. 6. “7-Election” cup sales have predicted the past three presidential elections.
If the cup trends continue, Obama will get another four years to percolate. His cups have raked in 59 percent of sales to Romney’s 41 percent. There’s no room to be undecided if you want your java.
If you’ve always wondered what it’s like to sip coffee while sitting in the Oval Office contemplating how to be the leader of the free world, or how to be reelected, there’s one other perk in the 7-Eleven campaign. The Mobile Oval bus tour with its Oval Office replication will be making stops in such cities as Reno, Nev., Los Angeles, and Dallas between now and Election Day.
Finally, this one’s for you if you think the election is for the dogs: A new company is trying to get in on the action, but it's taking a more historical approach to presidential popularity. Veterinary Pet Insurance Co. of Brea, Calif., put out a press release this week noting the Top 10 most common presidential names among its database of more than 485,000 insured pets.
Jackson (as in Andrew) is No. 1, with 942 pets named after him. Carter (as in Jimmy) is No. 10 with just 82.
But can’t they give us the pets’ prediction for Election 2012?
VPI doesn’t claim any predictive track record. But it notes that the database includes five pets named “Obama,” 10 named “Barack,” and zero named “Romney” or “Mitt.” Seven pets, however, do go by “Willard,” Romney’s first name. Who knew?
Signage in support of US Senate candidates Tim Kaine and George Allen outside of Squires Student Center, the site of a live televised debate on the Virginia Tech campus in Blacksburg, Va., Thursday. (Matt Gentry/The Roanoke Times/AP)
Senate race? What Senate race? Why Virginians pay a big race little heed.
Despite an avalanche of advertisements and the two Senate candidates' long legacies in Virginia politics, Republican George Allen and Democrat Tim Kaine have an unexpected challenge in their tight race: getting voters to pay attention to them.
“I am shocked, as I’m going out and ringing [on] doors [on behalf of GOP candidates], people don’t know the Senate candidates, despite their pedigree,” says former Rep. Tom Davis (R), who represented a district abutting Washington, D.C., for a dozen years until 2008.
The Senate rivals have now debated in public five times, most recently Thursday night. Millions have been spent by their campaigns to reach voters. Yet local politicos report that many Virginians seem to have not the foggiest idea what is going on in one of 2012’s marquee Senate races.
RECOMMENDED: Six 2012 Senate races where the tea party counts
Susan Allen, campaigning for her husband, recently wrangled a light moment out of voter ignorance. She had run through her stump speech and was ready for questions from a handful of employees at a small medical company in Mt. Jackson, Va., a town in the commonwealth’s Shenandoah Valley.
The first questioner asked about the main differences between her husband, who has served the state as both a governor and a US senator, and his opponent, also an ex-governor.
As Mrs. Allen began her explanation, the questioner broke in again. “What’s his name, by the way?” he said, referring to Mr. Allen’s opponent.
“Tim Kaine,” she whispered, to a laugh.
What gives? There are a couple of theories.
One is that time in the commonwealth is measured in “Virginia years,” as Mr. Davis put it. The state is changing rapidly as its minority representation grows, and in the suburbs around Washington, D.C., there's a high churn rate of people moving in and out. As a result, a fair share of the voters who elected Allen (who ran for governor in 1993 and Senate in 2000) and Kaine (who ran for governor in 2005) simply aren't around anymore.
In 2000, less than 5 percent of the state was Hispanic. In the 2010 census, that figure grew to more than 8 percent. Virginia is about two percentage points more Asian in 2012, at about 6 percent, than in 2000.
Another is that the state is awash in political advertising – and the Senate candidates may be tuned out as “just another political ad.”
In 2008, nearly 59,000 presidential ads were aired across the commonwealth, according to data from CNN and Campaign Media Analysis Group. The Obama and Romney campaigns had roared past that mark by Sept. 30, with more than 80,000 aired, according to the Wesleyan Media Project.
Compare that with the Senate campaigns, which aired nearly 22,000 commercials combined through the end of September, according to data from the Wesleyan Media Project.
Some voters may be turned off by the negative tone of many ads in both the presidential and Senate campaigns, says Bob Denton, a professor of political communication at Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, Va.
Attack ads can activate a candidate's base and may hit home with a few voters leaning in one direction or another, he notes. But “there can be a backfire effect from the standpoint of cynicism, and the older people are the more sensitive they tend to be in terms of that cynical attitude,” Professor Denton says. Brutal negativity “could suppress votes if you’re not careful.”
RECOMMENDED: Six 2012 Senate races where the tea party counts
Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney and President Obama spar during the second presidential debate at Hofstra University, Tuesday, Oct. 16, in Hempstead, N.Y. (Charlie Neibergall/AP)
Presidential debate: How would you rate this musical parody? (+video)
If the 1.5-hour-long presidential debate format tends to tax your ability to remain engaged, you might try the condensed, "songified" YouTube version.
The Gregory Brothers, aka schmoyoho, have, for the third time, provided a musical video parody of the latest Election 2012 debate. The Brooklyn-based band has previously "songifed the first presidential debate between President Obama and Mitt Romney, as well as the vice presidential debate between Vice President Joe Biden and Congressman Paul Ryan.
Now debates are a serious business, designed to help voters make up their minds about the issues and the candidates. So, it's difficult to argue that these videos offer any value beyond entertainment. It's sort of like arguing that you can be a well-informed voter only by watching Comedy Central's "The Daily Show" hosted by Jon Stewart.
Nonetheless, these video parodies are a product of the times and are finding an audience.
As of the time of this writing on Thursday the video seen here on youtube, has 273,537 hits.
So, who are The Gregory Brothers?
The unique musical stylings are made up by a group of three brothers originally from Virginia named Evan, Michael, and Andrew, when they began making mixed tapes from their living room. According to the group's website, their work hadn't really taken off until 2007 when Evan's wife Sarah from Texas joined, completing the quartet. After sharing their original country & soul, folk, and rock & roll tunes on a local 50 show tour, they then decided to make their Youtube series, "Auto-Tune the News" in 2008, with hopes of enticing more people to be interested in "C-Span if it thumped with a bass line and a beat," their website states.
In a New York Times op-ed, Dave Itzkoff writes in this 2011 profile of the band, "They do this by taking footage that has already been widely circulated around the Internet — a viral video sensation — and they, to use a word from their lexicon, 'songify' it."
The Gregory Brothers use an auto-tune - an audio processor that digitally alters the pitch creating an effect that makes a speaker sound like they're singing. In this case, they've taken the actual debate participants and altered their voices to make it sound like they're singing. They've also introduced their own melody, instruments, and characters to the debate setting. Check out this behind-the-scenes look at the overnight effort to create the latest video.
The latest video begins with debate moderator Candy Crowley, strumming a guitar and in rap-style, singing “Welcome to the town hall debate where ordinary people talk to the candidates.”
The video "songifies" several of the topics of the Tuesday night debate: healthcare cost, jobs, tax rates, equal pay for equal work for women, with town hall attendees Skippy, Chad, and Cynthia asking “What are you gonna do.”
And feel free to sing along.
Romney supporters watch the second presidential debate between Mitt Romney and President Obama at Marshall's Restaurant and Bar, on Tuesday night in Columbus, Ohio. Three weeks before the presidential election, both parties are working hard to get their candidates elected. Ohio is a key battleground state. (Melanie Stetson Freeman/The Christian Science Monitor)
Viewing the Romney-Obama debate in battleground Ohio: a tribal experience
What do you do when you’re invited to two parties on the same night? Easy. You go to both.
And so it was on Tuesday night, both the Romney and Obama campaigns here in Columbus, Ohio – the heart of the ultimate battleground state – set up “debate-watching parties” to cheer on their respective candidates.
A quick check on Mapquest revealed that they were taking place only about three miles apart, and voilà, a party-hopping strategy was born: We (your correspondent and her colleague, Monitor photographer Melanie Stetson Freeman) would start out at the Romney event, then after about 40 minutes, jump in our car and go over to the Obama event.
After all, we didn’t want to appear biased. And there was so much at stake for each side: President Obama was under intense pressure to step up his game after a lackluster performance in the first debate two weeks ago. Mitt Romney, riding high from his Oct. 3 triumph, had an opportunity to build on the momentum that has turned the race into a dead heat.
Who would attend these events? And how would the partisans react? The Romney tribe – top Ohio campaign staff, volunteers, and supporters, about 130 people in all – gathered at a sports bar called Marshall’s. Chris Lockwood, the US editor of The Economist, visiting from London, was also in the house. We counted 12 TVs, all tuned to Fox News. The libations flowed freely.
To be sure, each side cheered on its man and snorted derisively at the opposition. But in fact, there was also a fair amount of silent, attentive listening – and apparent monitoring of social media on smart phones and laptops. These were serious politicos.
Mr. Romney won applause and laughter when he turned the tables on Mr. Obama over the bailout of the auto industry. It was the president, in fact, who “took Detroit bankrupt,” Romney said. Romney’s mention of “that pipeline from Canada,” the Keystone XL pipeline, which he supports, in contrast to Obama, also won applause.
When Romney stood his ground in the face of attempted interruptions by Obama – “You'll get your chance in a moment. I'm still speaking,” Romney said –his supporters cheered. This contrasts with the reactions of undecided voters, who (we later learned from focus groups) did not like the moments when the two contenders moved into close physical proximity and talked over each other and over the moderator, CNN’s Candy Crowley.
Perhaps the most emotionally involved debate-watcher in the room was Pamela Lanier of Columbus, who shook her fist at the TV screen when Obama spoke about small businesses.
“I’m a small-business owner,” Ms. Lanier told Ms. Freeman. “Obama wasn’t in there turning on the lights and emptying the trash. I employ five women.”
Time now to migrate to the Obama tribe, gathered in a movie theater at the Ohio State University (OSU). We walk in to a sea of faces – mostly college students, some campaign volunteers and staff, and the Democratic nominee for Ohio’s Third Congressional District, Joyce Beatty – all trained on giant Romney and giant Obama on the big screen. It’s tuned to MSNBC, of course.
During the ride over, we missed the discussion of contraception (we later learned), which probably played well with this crowd. But there were other moments for the Obama fans to cheer, such as when Ms. Crowley backed up Obama on the question of whether he had called the Sept. 11 attack on the US consulate in Benghazi, Libya, an act of terror in his Rose Garden appearance on Sept. 12.
“He did in fact, sir,” Crowley said, contradicting Romney. The Obama supporters at OSU erupted in cheers.
A closer look at the transcript reveals that Obama’s reference to “acts of terror” is not clearly about Benghazi. And he did for days continue to blame a YouTube video for the violence, not terrorism. But the instant verdict by Crowley allowed Obama to score a temporary point.
When Romney’s answer on gun control morphed into a discussion of child-bearing, this statement brought an audible gasp from the crowd: “To tell our kids that before they have babies, they ought to think about getting married to someone – that's a great idea.”
“Did he just say that?!” an audience-member responded incredulously.
But it was Obama’s final flourish of the debate that brought on the biggest cheer: He finally dropped a reference to Romney’s recorded private comment slamming “the 47 percent.”
“I believe Governor Romney is a good man. He loves his family, cares about his faith,” Obama said. “But I also believe that when he said behind closed doors that 47 percent of the country considers themselves victims who refuse personal responsibility – think about who he was talking about.”
People on Social Security, Obama continued. And veterans, students, soldiers, low-wage workers.
After failing to bring up the infamous 47 percent remark in the first debate, to the dismay of the president’s Democratic base, Obama had finally gotten in his dig.
“This time he found his voice,” said Sherry Girves, an Obama volunteer, after the debate.
Said a student: “I’m so glad I skipped studying to go to this.”
Members of the audience look to the stage as President Barack Obama speak at the Cesar E. Chavez National Monument, Oct. 8 in Keene, Calif. (Carolyn Kaster/AP)
In dedicating César Chávez monument, Obama reaches out to Latino voters
While Mitt Romney touted his foreign policy agenda in Virginia on Columbus Day, President Obama courted a key demographic in California: Hispanic voters.
Mr. Obama designated the César E. Chávez National Monument in Keene, Calif., honoring the labor leader and reaching out to Latinos and union workers at the same time.
He toured the site at Nuestra Señora Reina de la Paz, where Mr. Chávez lived and where he helped the United Farm Workers union strategize for better pay and working conditions.
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In his remarks, Obama evoked recent history, when no one seemed to care about the plight of America's farm workers.
"César cared," the president said. "In his own peaceful and eloquent way, he made other people care, too."
The site includes Chávez's grave, his office, and the small home where his widow still lives.
The decision to designate a monument here is historic – it will be the first parcel in the National Park Service system honoring a modern-day Latino – but it also clearly has political motivations.
Currently, polls show that Obama has the support of about 70 percent of Latino voters – a wide lead that could help propel him to victory. Hispanics are a growing demographic that both Obama and Mr. Romney have eagerly sought. But while the numbers for Obama are encouraging, it's unclear how enthusiastically many of those voters support him or whether they'll get to the polls on Election Day.
Already, in a move his opponents have criticized as politically motivated, Obama has gained some support from Latino voters with his decision to allow work permits to some young undocumented immigrants brought to the US as children, via the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program – a program similar to the DREAM Act.
Given that focus on immigration – and the importance of immigration reform to many Hispanic voters – it's notable what a controversial figure Chávez was, even among Latinos.
As co-founder of the National Farm Workers Association (which later became the UFW), he was a tireless advocate for laborers' rights and helped make the plight of thousands of fieldworkers a moral cause. He also coined the famous phrase "Si, se puede" – the Spanish phrase that was reflected in Obama's "Yes we can" slogan in 2008.
But Chávez was not a fan of expanding immigration. He believed that undocumented immigrants undercut the pay and negotiating power of unionized workers, and he protested farms' use of migrant and undocumented workers as "strikebreakers."
In some instances, he and the UFW even reported some undocumented immigrants to the Immigration and Naturalization Service for deportation.
In the 1970s, under Chávez, the UFW set up a "wet line" along the US-Mexico border to stop immigrants from entering the US illegally.
Almost certainly, it was the pro-worker, civil rights activist Chávez, and not the anti-immigrant Chávez, that Obama sought to honor in dedicating the monument on Monday.
Chávez, he noted in his remarks, believed "when someone who works 12 hours a day in the fields can earn enough to put food on the table – maybe save up enough to buy a home – that lifts up our entire economy."
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First lady Michelle Obama gets some pointers as she watches the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series auto race at Homestead-Miami Speedway in Homestead, Fla., Nov. 20, 2011. ((AP Photo/Alan Diaz) )
Obama opens up lead over Romney with NASCAR voters: Another straw the wind?
Remember back in November when Michelle Obama was booed at a NASCAR race?
Well, a new poll shows NASCAR fans are now moving into the Obama camp.
An online survey of of 860 likely voters nationwide – taken Sept. 21 and 22 – shows President Barack Obama with an 7-point lead over GOP challenger Mitt Romney, according to a new Zogby Poll [PDF] with JZ Analytics.
The question posed: "If the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote?" The answer: Forty-nine percent of NASCAR fans would vote for Obama. 42 percent said Romney.
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But if you think that NASCAR fans are conservative Southern rednecks, then you'd probably be drawing the wrong conclusion from this poll. Wal-Mart shoppers, Christian conservatives, and white men are still in the Romney camp.
In fact, the NASCAR voting preferences almost exactly match the Zogby results from all likely American voters: Obama now leads 49 percent to 41 percent.
But the trend in both cases is heading away from Romney. Just two weeks ago, a Zogby/JZ Analytics poll showed the two almost tied among motorsports fans. Obama had 44 percent of NASCAR voters, Romney had 43 percent. The margin of error was 3.5 percent.
"I won’t say that things are spinning out of control for Romney, but I can say that things are not spinning in control. He is off message, losing ground, not connecting with his own base, being severely chastised (and even dismissed) by GOP pundits who should be his friends. There are ups and downs in presidential campaigns. For Romney, this is a real down," writes pollster John Zogby.
Who are NASCAR voters? Well, the stereotype of conservative Southern rednecks is a bit outdated.
Forty percent are women. More than half make $50,000 or less per year. Yes, they tend to be a bit older than the general population, according to a 2010 NASCAR report (PDF). But as an article by S.E. Cupp, featured on the NASCAR site, notes, NASCAR fans four years ago tended to just lean conservative: 35 percent Republican vs. 28 percent Democrat.
Beyond NASCAR voters, support for Mitt Romney hasn't shifted core traditional Republican voter groups. For example, among weekly Wal-Mart shoppers, Romney still has a 3-point lead over Obama, which is the same gap as the last similar Zogby poll on Sept. 11-12.
Similarly, Romney's support among self-identified Born Again Christians has held steady, as has Romney's 12-point lead among all white voters.
So, beware of reading too much into the NASCAR headlines.
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Former governor of Michigan Jennifer Granholm addresses delegates during the final session of the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C., Thursday. (Jason Reed/REUTERS)
Best lines of Democratic convention – from Jennifer Granholm to John Kerry (+video)
Who knew that John Kerry was a stand-up comedian?
When the Democratic senator from Massachusetts ran for president in 2004, he was panned as stiff and pompous. But in Charlotte, N.C., Thursday night at the Democratic convention, the man who may be the next secretary of State reeled off a string of one-liners that had the delegates roaring and reporters wide-eyed.
Other Democrats, including President Obama, also got off some good lines. Here’s a selection:
• “Ask Osama bin Laden if he’s better off now than he was four years ago,” Senator Kerry said. The line was a three-fer: It mocked the now-deceased head of Al Qaeda. It reminded the audience that bin Laden is dead, a national security coup no one can take away from Mr. Obama. And it made light of the Republican charge that Americans are not better off than they were four years ago.
• “Talk about being for it before you were against it,” Kerry also said. This one’s a two-fer: He was making fun of Mitt Romney’s shifting positions on Iraq and Libya, and then mocking himself for his infamous comment from the 2004 race when he was tagged (like Mr. Romney) as a flip-flopper.
• “For Mitt Romney, an overseas trip is what you call it when you trip all over yourself overseas. It wasn't a goodwill mission – it was a blooper reel.” More Kerry, referring to Romney’s gaffe-marred foreign trip in July, when, for example, he undiplomatically told the British he was worried about security during the forthcoming Olympics.
• “Yes, you do have to go to school in the morning,” Obama said of his two girls, who were seated before him on the convention floor. Obama mentions Malia (14) and Sasha (11) regularly, an effective way to address his tendency to seem aloof.
• “If you're sick of hearing me approve this message, believe me, so am I,” Obama said. He was referring to the line candidates are required to cite in campaign ads they pay for. It was also a dig at the Supreme Court ruling Citizens United that has opened the floodgates on campaign spending and ads.
• “As another president once said, 'There they go again,' ” former President Bill Clinton said Wednesday night. Paraphrasing the late Ronald Reagan, he was mocking Republican proposals to cut spending on social programs but increase spending on defense.
• “People have predicted our demise ever since George Washington was criticized for being a mediocre surveyor with a bad set of wooden false teeth.” More Clinton.
• “He loves our cars so much, they even have their own elevator,” said Jennifer Granholm, the former governor of Romney’s native state of Michigan, in an arm-waving, cheerleading tour de force. Who says women can’t be funny?
• “In Romney’s world, the cars get the elevator, and the workers get the shaft,” more ex-Governor Granholm, who spoke Thursday night. She was referring to the car elevator once proposed for Romney’s home in California. Now, safe to say, that elevator will never be built.
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