Election 2012: In Senate, a mighty struggle to maintain status quo

The presidential race is also expected to affect Senate battles in Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is up for reelection against state Treasurer Josh Mandel (R); in Florida, where Sen. Bill Nelson (D) is defending his seat against Rep. Connie Mack (R); and in Nevada, where Sen. Dean Heller (R) is up against Rep. Shelley Berkley (D). So far, polls show the three incumbents leading.

In Virginia, the Allen and Kaine campaigns are well funded and draw on a well of experienced political hands. But in terms of political electricity, they don't hold a candle to the juggernaut of a presidential race.

The Senate candidates are watching as Obama and Mr. Romney spend heavily, in time and treasure, in the Old Dominion. The state's four major media markets – Washington, D.C.; Norfolk; Richmond; and Roanoke – are all in the top 20 for presidential campaigns' ad buys. That distinction is matched only by perennial swing-state Ohio, according to an analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project.

Virginia has collected 52 visits from the presidential contenders, their wives, and their vice presidential picks, trailing only Ohio (63) and Florida (68), according to data compiled by The Washington Post.

How should the Senate candidates campaign? Hold on for the ride, says Virginia-based political analyst Quentin Kidd, and be careful.

Kaine, one of the first governors to endorse Obama in 2008 and chairman of the Democratic National Committee at the start of the president's term, is tied deeply to Obama's popularity in the state. Mr. Allen is in a trickier situation, needing to embrace Romney enough to ride his coattails should he win in Virginia but not wanting to come too close in the event Romney falters.

"The extent to which George Allen is going to link himself and his turnout operation very closely with the Romney campaign is limited," says Mr. Kidd, a professor of political science at Christopher Newport University in Newport News, Va. "If Mitt Romney slides among independent [voters], George Allen doesn't want to be too closely tied to that because he needs those independent voters to vote for him."

Against the grain in the Big Sky

Another type of race in 2012 will feature either a Democrat running strong in a "red" state that is expected to go for Romney, or a Republican running strong in a "blue" one probably destined to pick Obama.

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