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Buffett Rule: Could it backfire on Democrats?

Democrats are campaigning for the Buffett Rule, which would ensure millionaires pay federal taxes at a higher tax rate. But polls show 'fairness' doesn't motivate key independent voters. 

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"Given the fact that it’s Warren Buffett, it’s got this nickname that’s easily understandable, a beloved icon saying ‘my taxes should be raised,’ it’s an easy thing to explain and should therefore be pretty effective out on the campaign trail,” says Mr. Collender.

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But conservatives are confident when it comes to comparing the president’s desire to give Americans a “fair shake” with Romney's focus on “opportunity.” 

While 59 percent of Americans say upper-income earners should pay more in taxes, that’s down from 77 percent in 1992, according to an analysis of Gallup polling data by Karlyn Bowman, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.

In addition, the percentage of Americans who say the rich pay too little has declined during the last two decades, while the share who say the poor pay too little has risen from 8 percent to 21 percent, according to AEI's findings. 

“The Buffett Rule is certainly superficially very popular, but there isn’t much indication that tax issues, tax reform issues, or even taxing the rich has as much intensity as jobs, unemployment, or other issues,” says Ms. Bowman.

Republicans call the deal a "show vote" that doesn't do enough to address the national debt – the issue that concerns swing independents the most, according to the Third Way poll. (The wealthy not paying enough in taxes comes in No. 7.) Republicans also criticize Democrats for wanting to raise taxes on any Americans during a period of tepid economic growth.

But Democrats see the "fairness" inherent in the Buffett Rule as instrumental to opportunity and economic growth. They go "hand in hand," said Jim Messina, Obama's campaign manager, in a conference call with reporters Monday. 

Obama is expected to hit this point repeatedly in the coming week, both in his comments and through forums like local opinion articles in 13 states that are key swing states or feature hot Senate elections this autumn.

“Every Member of Congress is going to go on record,” Obama said of the coming vote in his March 31 weekly address. “And if they vote to keep giving tax breaks to people like me – tax breaks our country can’t afford – then they’re going to have to explain to you where that money comes from.”

RECOMMENDED: Why America won't raise taxes

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