John Ensign resignation puts focus on Nevada elections. Will GOP have an edge?

“The truth no one is likely to admit is that Sen. Ensign is being pushed out to give the Republican party a leg up in the 2012 election by allowing Governor Brian Sandoval to appoint Rep. Dean Heller (R) of Nevada to the seat so he can run with all the advantages of incumbency,” said Melanie Sloan, executive director of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, in a statement Friday.

Typically, incumbency is worth at least a 5-point advantage on election day, but appointees historically haven’t reaped the same advantage. Since 1913, of the 189 people who have been appointed to vacant Senate seats, only a third were later elected to those seats. Of those who opted to run for election (70 did not), 62 won their races and 57 were defeated, according to the Senate Historical Office.

Here’s what’s not in dispute: Should Congressman Heller be appointed to Ensign’s Senate seat, his House seat becomes a key bellwether for the 2012 campaign cycle.

But Nevada has never had a special election for a US House seat, and state law is unclear on how to proceed.

Special House election could be a free-for-all

One possible interpretation is that the election is a free-for-all, with any candidate able to file to run – and possibly win with as little as 20 percent of the vote. Under such a scenario, former GOP Senate nominee Sharron Angle, a tea party favorite, could be a credible candidate.

But if the nomination comes down to a decision by state party leaders, Angle, viewed as running a poor race against Senate majority leader Harry Reid in 2010, is highly unlikely to be the GOP nominee. If she ran as a third-party candidate, it could split the Republican vote, giving the seat to a Democrat.

“Nevada is the center of the political world for now,” says David Wasserman, who covers House races for the Cook Political Report. “You have an open Senate race that’s likely to be very competitive, you could have as many as four competitive House races, depending on redistricting, and you have a presidential battleground. What more can you ask for.”

In a statement Friday, Gov. Sandoval said, “I expect to announce an appointment before [Ensign’s] resignation effective date of May 3. I take very seriously the importance of this appointment, so to speculate on potential candidates for appointment before then would be premature.”

Shaking up 2012: US senators who aren't running for reelection

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