Midterm elections: not all bad news for Democrats

Midterm elections are historically difficult for the president's party. With the economy in trouble, this year will likely be no different for Democrats – but it might not be as bad as it could be.

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Democrats have tried to frame the election as a choice between the past and the future, or as Mr. Obama put it, between "the policies that got us into this mess and my policies that are getting us out of this mess." So far, though, most Americans don't think Obama's policies are working. The Democrats are also trying to energize the first-time voters from 2008 – particularly the young and minorities – who helped propel Obama into office. But without Obama on the ballot, that may be tough.

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On the Senate side, Republicans are expected to pick up seats, but prospects for a takeover are dimmer than in the House. With a 59-to-41 Democratic majority, the Republicans need a net gain of 10 seats to take control, and there's a smaller margin for error than in the House.

Twelve Democratic-held seats are considered vulnerable – including a few that are already effectively gone, such as North Dakota. There, popular Gov. John Hoeven (R) has a prohibitive lead in his campaign to replace retiring Sen. Byron Dorgan (D). But the Republicans have their own collection of vulnerable Senate seats, including Florida, Kentucky, and Missouri.

The irony of the tea party movement is that while it has helped put wind in the sails of Republican candidates across the country, it also has created opportunities for Democrats in a handful of key Senate races.

Democratic majority leader Harry Reid's days as a senator from Nevada would almost surely be numbered if not for the tea party insurgency that gave ultraconservative Sharron Angle the Republican nomination. Democrats may take effective control of the Republican-held seat in Florida if Gov. Charlie Crist wins that race and ends up caucusing, as rumored, with the Democrats. Governor Crist was forced out of the Republican Party by the tea party-backed Marco Rubio, and is running for the Senate as an independent.

In Pennsylvania, Sen. Arlen Specter switched from Republican to Democrat last year, because of a tough challenge from his right by former Rep. Pat Toomey. Now, Mr. Toomey faces a tight race against Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak in the general election. If Senator Specter (who lost his Democratic primary to Congressman Sestak) had remained a Republican, he might have had an easier time holding onto the seat for the GOP than Toomey will.

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