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Kentucky Senate race looks set to boost the 'tea party,' Rand Paul

Rand Paul, the 'tea party' favorite, holds a double-digit lead in the Republican primary for Kentucky's Senate seat. The Democratic race is closer, but polls show either candidate would be more competitive against Paul than against his GOP opponent, Trey Grayson.

By Staff writer / May 14, 2010

Kentucky Senate race: Republican US Senate candidate Rand Paul, a favorite of 'tea party' groups, prepared for a candidate forum in Lexington, Ky., Monday. Paul's opponents in the May 18 Republican primary, Gurley Martin (l.) and C.M. "Trey" Grayson (c.), are also pictured.

Ed Reinke/AP

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In a primary season when the “tea party” movement has had mixed success, Kentucky looks set to give the antitax, small-government conservatives a big boost.

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Polls show first-time politician – and libertarian-leaning tea-party favorite – Rand Paul with a solid double-digit lead in the Republican primary for Senate. That expected victory next Tuesday will deal an embarrassing blow to the top Republican in the US Senate, Kentucky’s own Mitch McConnell, who had hand-picked state Secretary of State Trey Grayson to run for the seat of retiring Sen. Jim Bunning (R).

Under normal circumstances, Senator McConnell’s endorsement would have been good as gold. But these are not normal times.

Though still popular with Kentucky Republicans, McConnell is as “establishment” as it gets, and voters are in a feisty, anti-establishment mood.

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The rise of Dr. Paul – an opthalmologist and son of libertarian Rep. Ron Paul (R) of Texas – has confounded Kentucky political observers and thrown a twist into general election calculations. Nonpartisan observers generally believe Mr. Grayson would be the stronger contender in November, and so the likely nomination of Paul may give the Democrats a shot at taking over this seat in a solidly red state.

As a libertarian, Paul holds some views outside the conservative mainstream – such as opposition to the Iraq war and support for legalized medical marijuana – but they have not been enough to dampen the enthusiasm of his supporters. For now, the Cook Political Report lists the general election race as a tossup.

Paul’s stunning rise has also overshadowed the Democratic primary, which has boiled down to a tight contest between Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo and state Attorney General Jack Conway. A Research 2000 poll taken May 2-4 shows Mr. Mongiardo up by seven points, 39 percent to 32 percent.

But a more recent poll, by the automated SurveyUSA, shows Mongiardo up by just one point. Jennifer Duffy, the Senate analyst for Cook Political, says Mr. Conway has the momentum.

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