At White House: 14 senators discuss climate-energy legislation

Besides Senators Kerry, Lieberman, and Graham, other expected senators at the meeting include these Democrats: John Rockefeller of West Virginia, Max Baucus of Montana, Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico, Barbara Boxer of California, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, and Maria Cantwell of Washington. On the Republican side will be George LeMieux of Florida, Richard Lugar of Indiana, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine, and Judd Gregg of New Hampshire.

Also expected to attend the meeting: Energy Secretary Steven Chu, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, and Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lisa Jackson.

Mr. Book tallies about 58 senators already that he thinks might support the new version of climate-energy legislation. If he's right, that leaves only two more votes to gather. A tally by Energy & Environment Daily has about 41 "yes" votes in the Senate – with another 20 coal-state senators, 18 nuclear power-favoring senators, and 13 oil and gas senators "in play."

So what might be on the list of energy chits that might become the subject of a little horse trading? Senator Murkowski, who has long sought drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve, might not get her wish, since that would cause a meltdown among Democratic supporters. On the other hand, she might win federal funding to help move Alaskan indigenous peoples away from crucial coastal areas, Book says.

Would some senators – like Gregg or LeMieux, for instance – be willing to support a bill that permits offshore drilling in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, in return for expanded federal loan guarantees for nuclear power?

"Offshore drilling and energy independence is essential to any bill I would support," Graham said last week. "There's a way to drill for oil and gas offshore that will really lead to energy independence."

What would the president give? The administration has proposed a budget that eliminates roughly $40 billion in tax breaks for the oil and gas industry. The coal industry alone faces a repeal of $2.3 billion in tax breaks over 10 years. So what would a coal-state senator want in return for his vote?

"It's really just three letters – CCS: more money for carbon capture and sequestration," Book says. "If you're from a coal-producing state like Rockefeller, what you are interested in is a future for coal. That's what CCS represents."

For environmentalists like David Doniger who want a bill that will curb carbon pollution, cut oil dependency, and create green-energy jobs, the White House conclave is a tense wait-and-see game.

"We don't know what the product of this meeting will be," Mr. Doniger says. "But we're very hopeful a compromise bill that deals with climate and energy will emerge. Then we'll see if it's something that we can support, too."

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