Can Obama generate 2 million jobs from exports? It won't be easy.

"This 2 million figure comes from the same bag of political numbers" as the White House’s rosy projections last year on clean-energy jobs and other stimulus-related jobs, Morici says.

The quest for jobs has been a key focus for Obama since taking office in the midst of a deep recession, and especially so in the past month. In addition to new promotion of exports, he outlined a new effort to spur the flow of credit to small businesses.

Impetus for job creation can come from a handful of places: domestic consumer spending, spending by US businesses on new equipment or facilities, and trade with other nations. Obama has also deployed government spending to create jobs – which economists view as a temporary aid to employment, at best.

Many economists expect at least a modest rebound in consumer and business spending this year. But they're worried that this won't provide enough fuel to address the nation's high unemployment rate.

With that problem in view, the Obama administration appears to be focusing harder on the potential of trade to help the labor market.

"One item that stood out as different [in his speech] was the acknowledgement that we are on our way to export-led growth, if we are to have growth at all," commented Andrew Samwick, a Dartmouth College economist, in an online analysis of Obama's remarks to the nation. "I don't think [2 million jobs] a reasonable projection, but it does signal a different way of talking about what's important in economic policy."

Balancing world trade

Most economists don't pin all their job-growth hopes on trade. In fact, if the US seeks export-led growth, a key challenge will be that many other nations are also trying that strategy. For every nation with a dollar of trade surplus, there must be one with a dollar of trade deficit.

The result is persistent imbalances in the world economy. Many experts say the world economy needs some post-recession retooling, with the US importing less and exporting more, while China and other Asian nations transition toward growth fueled by their domestic consumers.

A vital step, Morici argues, is for Obama to take a tougher stance against China on its export-promoting trade practices. Notably, that would mean an appreciation of the Chinese currency (with other Asian currencies likely following), which could make US exports more competitive.

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