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GOP can yet prevail in a diverse America, Barbour asserts

The nation's changing demographics won't be a permanent roadblock to a Republican comeback, the former party chairman said Wednesday at a Monitor breakfast.

By Dave CookStaff writer / May 20, 2009

Mississippi governor and former Republican Party chairman Haley Barbour spoke at a Monitor breakfast on Wednesday.

Michael Bonfigli

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Washington

Mississippi governor and former Republican Party chairman Haley Barbour doesn't put much stock in a Democratic strategist's prediction that the GOP is destined to wander in the political wilderness for decades as a result of changing voter demographics.

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In fact, he dismisses it.

“In politics, nothing is ever as bad as it seems and never as good as it seems,” Governor Barbour told reporters Wednesday at a Monitor-sponsored breakfast.

Amid post-election soul-searching by Republicans, who for most of the past 30 years have not been accustomed to being the minority party, comes a salt-in-the-wound new book by Democratic activist James Carville, “40 More Years: How the Democrats Will Rule the Next Generation.” In it, he argues that “the demographic foundations of the Republican Party are crumbling.” Among other things, Mr. Carville notes the Republican Party’s especially weak standing among young and nonwhite voters.

GOP voter identification on the downswing

Some 39 percent of voters identify with the Republican Party versus 53 percent with the Democrats, according to 2009 polling data from the Gallup Organization. In 2001, by contrast, the parties were evenly matched. Among young people ages 18 to 29, only 32 percent say they are Republicans, down 9 percentage points since 2001. Among nonwhite voters of all ages, just 21 percent say they are Republicans.

Barbour, who served as chairman of the Republican National Committee (RNC) from 1993 to 1997 and before that was political director in Ronald Reagan’s White House, acknowledges that “demographics certainly matter.” But he also argues that his party’s performance among various groups of voters does not have to remain at its current depressed level.

“I don’t believe, from my experience in politics, that voters of demographic groups, because they went in one way in one election, are going to necessarily be that way every election,” he says. “Except for the African American-vote, which is the most monolithic demographic group, a lot of these voters move around depending on who the candidate is, what the issues are.”

Governors' races in 2010 will be key

Barbour argues that statehouse races will be key to his party’s efforts to rebuild.