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Unions pose difficult political test for Obama

How firmly will he stand with his labor allies during the painful restructuring of the auto industry?

By Staff writer / December 21, 2008

Cuts ahead: Big Three auto workers, like these Chrysler employees, face big contract concessions.

Rebecca Cook/Reuters

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The worst job market in a generation sets up a difficult test for Barack Obama: how closely to align himself with organized labor at a time when reviving economic growth is the top national priority.

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It’s a question that the incoming president will have to address directly in his first few weeks in office, as debate continues over the details of a bailout for the automotive industry.

A new plan for emergency loans of up to $17.4 billion for the industry, announced by President Bush Friday, is contingent on concessions by various stakeholders, including unionized auto workers. These workers supported Mr. Obama in the presidential election, and they hope he will stand with them as a March 31 deadline for finalizing those concessions approaches.

But the issue goes beyond the auto industry and beyond the unionized workforce. One of Obama’s key tenets is that America is in economic trouble because ordinary workers have fallen behind and been neglected in public policy, relative to business executives and investors.

The test for Obama is how to adjust that balance while also encouraging those very businesses and investors to create or preserve much-needed jobs. The auto industry will be just the first test of how this will go.

“This may turn out to be a sort of Nixon goes to China moment, where Obama has to stand up to organized labor and tell them they can’t get what they want,” says Donald Grimes, an economist at the University of Michigan who follows the auto industry.

During the election campaign, Obama made other labor-oriented pledges, including support for a hike in the minimum wage and for a new law that would make it easier for unions to expand into new workplaces.

If Obama pushes to enact those measures early in his term, Mr. Grimes says, “it may make the [economic] recovery harder to achieve.”

Right now, job creation and preservation hold the key to recovery. With consumers retrenching in the face of tight credit conditions, the economy lost half a million jobs in November, and the layoffs haven’t abated this month.

In the auto industry alone, hundreds of thousands of jobs are now at stake with General Motors nearly out of cash to fund its operations – and Chrysler in a similar bind.

Mr. Bush announced the new aid for the industry on Friday – with loans that will come from the Treasury’s existing $700 billion economic rescue fund – after Congress failed to agree on legislation to achieve that result.

Under the terms of the loans, GM and Chrysler would have to agree on measures by March 31 to restore profitability – moves expected to include concessions for stockholders, bondholders, managers, and workers.

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