Israelis uneasy as US nears vote

Mr. Rosner says that initial concern among Israeli officials that Obama would take a critical line toward Israel, reminiscent of former Democratic President Jimmy Carter’s comments this past year, has eased somewhat in recent months.

But Obama’s thin foreign-policy record still counts as a looming question mark.

“McCain is seen as a safe bet. The gut feeling on whether the US will support Israel’s need to use force is a key element,” says Rosner, a former US correspondent for the Haaretz newspaper.

He says there’s little difference between the candidates on a possible peace accord between Israel and the Palestinians. But there’s been a hint of the candidates’ differing worldviews: Obama has called that conflict a “sore” that affects the Middle East – a view echoing former British Prime Minister Tony Blair – while McCain has said that a solution wouldn’t necessarily temper extremism.

Israeli public opinion, along with local experts, has been used on both sides of the campaign to make inroads with American Jews.

In August, a pro-Obama Jewish group produced an Internet video purporting to show a group of ex-generals and security experts endorsing Obama. Several participants later said the producers of the film misled them into believing it was a nonpartisan production.Kory Bardash, chair of the Israel chapter of the Republicans Abroad, speculated that 70 percent of the ex-pat vote from the Jewish state backed Mr. Bush in 2004.

“All the Jewish papers want to know what Israelis think,” says Mitchell Barak, a local pollster. “I hold that what Israelis think has absolutely no bearing on what American Jews think. Israel isn’t necessarily the sole issue.”

Public opinion polls have been sparse and volatile. A mid-June poll for the right-wing Mekor Rishon newspaper put McCain’s lead between 36 to 27 percent, but an Israel Radio poll taken at the same time showed an Obama advantage.

Indeed, Israel is no red state. During the Democratic and Republican primaries, Hillary Rodham Clinton polled as the most popular candidate because of Israelis’ memories of Bill Clinton’s close ties with former Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin before his assassination.

Israelis with more dovish political leanings tend to speak more positively about an Obama presidency. Polls suggest he’s more popular with young Israelis.

“He symbolizes the winds of change,” says Gal Kachman, a psychology student at Tel Aviv University, sipping coffee at a cafe while a friend perused an article about Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin.

Mr. Kachman predicts that Israel would eventually fall into line with Obama’s backing for talks with Iran. He expresses hope that the Illinois senator would infuse Israel’s jaded public with a some optimism about politics.

“Because Obama is a rookie, it’s a gamble but the payoff is big. It’s change pushed to the extreme: black, young, inexperienced. Let’s go all the way.”

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