New battlegrounds for McCain and Obama

As the 2008 general election campaign kicks off, both major candidates are surveying the smorgasbord of states before them and see a table groaning with possibilities.

Both Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain see openings in states won by the opposing party in recent cycles. For Senator Obama of Illinois, demographic changes have made red states such as Virginia, Colorado, and North Carolina competitive. For Senator McCain of Arizona, Obama's poor primary showing among some traditional Democratic constituencies in crucial blue states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan has created an opening.

One need look no further than the two presumptive nominees' schedules to see the strategies in operation. This week, Obama is in Missouri, Iowa, and Wisconsin – only the last of which was won (barely) by Democratic nominee John Kerry four years ago. Last week, Obama launched his general election campaign in Virginia, a state that President Bush won four years ago by 9 points, and which both 2008 campaigns now consider competitive – the most dramatic entry into the ranks of battleground states.

McCain's presence Wednesday in Philadelphia, where he will hold a town-hall meeting, signals his intention to poach a blue state rich with Reagan Democrats – and a critical 21 electoral votes of the 270 needed to win the presidency.

"It is an absolute must-win state for Obama; if he loses it, I think it's almost impossible for him to win the election, because he's also likely losing Ohio and Florida," says Terry Madonna, a pollster at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa.

McCain is competitive in Pennsylvania, Mr. Madonna says, "because he is able to attract independents."

But for now, analysts say, the overall electoral map tilts toward Obama. The floundering economy, the Iraq war, and an unpopular Republican president all work against McCain, and if Obama can secure the states that Senator Kerry won in 2004, that's already 252 electoral votes – with just 18 to go for the presidency. Ohio alone (20 electoral votes) gets him there. So does a combination of Iowa (7), Colorado (9), and Nevada (5) or New Mexico (5), all states considered ripe for the picking by Obama.

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