Afghanistan surge: Is the 'clear, hold, build' strategy working?
The influx of U.S. troops to Afghanistan aims to 'clear' Taliban from population centers, then 'hold' them until Afghans can 'build' normal lives. The Pentagon looks to the Iraq surge for lessons.
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What does the Iraq surge tell us about what might happen in Afghanistan?Skip to next paragraph
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During the surge of forces in Iraq, which began in early 2007, the number of US casualties swelled. In January 2007, for example, there were 137,000 troops in Iraq and 86 coalition fatalities, according to icasualties.org. By May 2007, there were 148,000 American troops on the ground and 131 coalition fatalities.
But that trend started to change when certain factors converged to help stabilize Iraq. One of those factors, many experts argue, was that the increasing number of troops created a critical mass to help stem the violence.
By October, there were 166,000 American troops in Iraq, but the number of fatalities per month had dropped to 40.
Afghanistan may be considerably different, and experts and military officials are reluctant to predict that the surge will work the same way in two distinctly different places.
Iraq's relative homogeneity stands in stark contrast to the tribal and ethnic diversity of Afghanistan, where few village elders think alike, and are motivated by different things. One village leader might want money for a new school, another might want the US to vacate an area to give him more credibility.
Are US forces working to co-opt local forces as they did in Iraq with the 'Anbar Awakening'?
Not in any comprehensive way. The Pentagon has been pushing the small triumphs of its Local Defense Initiative, which attempts to leverage tribal militias into anti-insurgent "neighborhood watches."
But Kabul has pushed back against the initiative, fearing that the arming and promotion of local militias could lead to a civil war similar to the one that engulfed Afghanistan after the Soviets left and which led to the rise of the Taliban.
With the Americans wanting to have an Afghan face on everything they do, they are wary of going against Kabul's wishes. President Hamid Karzai plans to hold a "peace jirga" to bring together different leaders. Out of that a "Sons of Afghanistan"-like program could emerge. But it may still be too soon.