A drawdown of contractors in Iraq

The unemployment rate in Iraq is now about 18 percent, while 28 percent of men between the ages of 15 and 29 are "underemployed."

But reducing the number of contractors may not be easy. The support these contractors provide are sometimes critical, and difficult to eliminate quickly. Further complicating the matter is the fact that many of them use American equipment, which may or may not be left behind.

As for hiring Iraqis, apart from the security concerns posed by employing them for certain jobs, many Iraqi workers need to be trained before they can take over jobs such as base maintenance overnight. A training effort is now being planned to ensure Iraqis have the skills to take over these jobs, says a senior official in Baghdad.

In the interim, US forces may be forced to fill the void left by some of these contractors on everything from training Iraqi security forces to driving trucks, which could take them away from their military duties, says a former senior commander.

"Coming at a time when there are requests for troop reductions, this exacerbates and complicates commanders' issues," he says.

Nevertheless, the move away from contractors must eventually happen, he adds. "It's a good thing, and has to happen. We've become too dependent on contractors, so it will be a tough thing for soldiers."

Some bases use only a handful of contractors, say for translators, interpreters, and law enforcement and cultural advisers, and many of them are already Iraqi, according to Col. Walter Piatt, a brigade commander in Salahuddin Province. Colonel Piatt, speaking to reporters last month by a videoconference at the Pentagon, said it's hard to predict how quickly they will be able to reduce their use of the contractors.

"[T]here may be, in the future, a time when we can reduce other contractors. But the ones we have now, at least in my brigade, the ones that we're using are really for" specialized work, he said.

While the transition is critical to Iraqi independence, letting contractors go may not have much of an effect on US military forces, says Charles Ries, a retired American ambassador who oversaw the economic transition team for the State Department in Iraq until last August.

But it could have short-term effects on the local economy. Although much of the economic benefits resulting from these contracts go off-shore, it also fills the wallets of workers who in turn spend it in the economy, says Mr. Ries. "The Sri Lankans [in Iraq] are making a lot of money, and they spend some of it in Iraq."

The US has been training Iraqis to assume responsibility for many US bases. But it may take some years of such "capacity building" to get the Iraqis to adopt a "maintenance culture" that keeps base facilities, water treatment plants, and electric plants operating long after the US leaves, says Ries.

"A sharp change without a transition is destabilizing," he says.

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