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Is Obama's tough talk enough to help Iran's protesters?

President Obama on Tuesday chastised Iran for seeking to stifle protesters with beatings and tear gas. Some critics say he needs to act more forcefully against Iran's theocratic government.

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The problem for Obama is that Iran is not Egypt per se. The Iranian theocracy is not an aged power structure that long ago decayed from within, leaving a shell easily toppled by the winds of change.

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For the short run at least, Tehran has the will, and the power, to use force against its peaceful demonstrators. Until recent days security forces had successfully prevented Green Movement protesters from mounting large marches in commemoration of their 2009 uprising. On Monday, riot police beat protesters and fired tear gas in an attempt to tamp down the uprising before it has a chance to gain momentum.

In Egypt, the military served as an intermediary between the people and the regime, ushering President Mubarak into retirement. In Iran, the regime has its own military, the Revolutionary Guard, which will serve as the current leadership’s ultimate protection.

On Tuesday, a large majority of Iran’s parliament condemned Monday’s mass protests and called for the execution of prominent opposition leaders Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi.

Since 2004, the US State Department has spent about $60 million on democracy promotion efforts for Iran, according to a recent Congressional Research Service report. This money has gone to some 26 organizations based in the US and Europe. State Department officials will not publicly name the groups for security reasons.

Iran asserts that such spending violates the Algiers Accords – the agreement that ended the Iranian hostage crisis and that provides for noninterference in each other's affairs. In the past, Tehran has arrested civil society activists alleged to be receiving US democracy promotion funds. Iranian officials point to the US spending as backing for their insistence that foreign influences are behind the Iranian opposition.

“Many have consistently questioned the effectiveness of such funding,” concludes the CRS study. “In the view of many experts US funds would make the aid recipients less attractive to most Iranians.”

But in one sense, at least, Iran is like Egypt. In Egypt, a demographic bulge of young people frustrated with the country’s stagnation was a powerful force behind protests. Iran has a similar demographic bulge of youths born in the heady days after the 1979 overthrow of the Shah.

“These are the young people who were fueling the protests that we saw two years ago in Iran, and they’re going to be continuing to fuel protests,” said Ragui Assaad, a demographic expert and profess at the Humphrey School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota, in an interview on the Council of Foreign Relations website.

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