Troops withdraw, but US work in Iraq war unfinished and fragile

US Ambassador Christopher Hill and Gen. Ray Odierno, the US military commander in Iraq, have both departed their posts. What's more, Gen. David Petraeus no longer heads Central Command, which includes Iraq, and is now in charge of Afghanistan.

“It’s a little bit of a crisis moment in over-all policy,” Mr. O'Hanlon says.

He says flatly that he does not see how the 50,000 US troops that remain in Iraq can do what they are being called on to do, while drawing down by the end of next year.

Among those continuing military duties will be manning with Iraqi forces checkpoints in some of the country’s more ethnically sensitive regions, participating in counterinsurgency operations as requested by Iraqi officials, and continuing to “train, equip, and advise” Iraqi military forces.

A military-to-civilian transition

State Department officials discount the notion that the civilian side is unprepared or sailing into uncharted waters.

“This is a transition to a broader, more traditional binational relationship,” says Michael Corbin, the North African Affairs Bureau’s deputy assistant secretary for Iraq.

Officials also challenge the perception that the military-to-civilian transition is the first step in a withdrawal from Iraq.

“There is a misconception that the president’s priority is to leave,” says Colin Kahl, the Pentagon’s deputy assistant secretary for Middle East affairs. “It’s really laying the foundation for a long-term partnership.”

In addition to the US embassy in Baghdad – the largest US diplomatic mission in the world – the State Department plans consulates in Basra, the port and economic hub in the south, and in Arbil in the Kurdish north. Two embassy “branches” will be set up in Kirkuk and in Mosul, two flashpoints in Iraqi ethnic relations.

The State Department will make liberal use of private contractors in both its new police-training functions and in covering essential duties like personnel protection. But it is likely to run into financial shortfalls, Iraq experts say, especially given what appears to be a mood in Congress to trim back on Iraq spending.

What concerns some Iraq observers most is a sense that, for political reasons, the Obama administration is portraying Iraq as largely “mission accomplished” when there is still a steep and uncertain road ahead.

Noting that some officials talk about Iraq “as if we’re on the five yard line,” Pollack says, “We’re on more like the 40 – and it’s probably our 40. There’s a long way to go here."

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