Newly assertive Japan to test Obama

"Thus far, the 'equal alliance' concept has meant expressing grievances on the bilateral issues on the agenda," says Nicholas Szechenyi, deputy director of the Japan chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "What we haven't heard is much talk [from the Japanese] about how Japan could assume a larger role and take on greater responsibilities to create that 'more equal' relationship."

Mr. Hatoyama says he doesn't like aspects of the bases agreement reached by the two governments in 2006 and wants to renegotiate it. Washington reminds Tokyo that the deal – which would result in thousands of marines departing Okinawa for Guam – was 15 years in the making and could unravel if reopened.

On Afghanistan, Hatoyama has suggested that Japan will end a re-fueling mission in the Indian Ocean. But in late October, he said in a speech that Japan might consider a replacement refueling mission in the Gulf of Aden.

Despite pressure from Washington, the prime minister says Japan won't rush its decision on the bases realignment just to meet the artificial deadline of a presidential visit. But he has said he will have a plan for Japan's assistance in Afghanistan to lay out for Obama.

As a fellow new leader promising change and reevaluating inherited policies, Obama may have to accept Hatoyama's review of policies that are of key importance to the Japanese public, Mr. Szechenyi says. "If these bilateral security issues remain unresolved, it's going to create tensions across the relationship," he says. But "if Hatoyama can move forward on the Afghanistan question for the visit, that will be positive," he adds.

Yet even if the bilateral security issues of the moment are resolved, the questions about Japan's broader security and ­foreign-policy vision will continue to hang over the relationship, Mr. Klingner says. Standing at the heart of those uncertainties will be China. How does Japan, as well as the US, plan to deal with this rising economic and military power?

"The prevailing theme is that Japan's relations with China should become as strong as its relations with the US," says Klingner, who was recently in Japan. "What you hear in Tokyo is that the new leadership sees an evolving global power structure marked by a weakening US, and they feel Japan must accommodate itself to the new reality."

Japan may well be contemplating a new orientation as Asia's power equilibrium shifts, other analysts say. But some add that Obama has an opportunity to put a Japan clamoring for greater influence to good use as he pursues some of his own global priorities.

"Obama can use his visit to set the stage for a revitalized relationship by focusing on two issues that are priorities for him and for Japan's new leadership: global warming and getting rid of nuclear weapons," says David Arase, an expert in East Asian security relations at Pomona College in Claremont, Calif. Not only would that reduce the focus on bilateral military issues, he adds, but it would also make both sides feel that Japan is part of Obama's international agenda.

"The Japanese would love it," Mr. Arase says, "and Obama could leave Japan pretty happy."

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See also:

Obama's two-part message on his week-long trip to Asia.

Editorial: On his trip, will Obama reset the Asian order?

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