Why US Senate race in Massachusetts is Ed Markey's to lose

It's Ed Markey’s race to lose.  

The veteran Democratic congressman has a seven-point lead over Republican Gabriel Gomez in the special election for US Senate in Massachusetts, according to a new poll by the League of Conservation Voters and Public Policy Polling.

The poll is the third in recent days to show Mr. Markey, a four-decade veteran of the House of Representatives, with a healthy margin over Mr. Gomez, a Navy SEAL and businessman who is making his first major foray into politics. 

A poll last week by Boston public radio station WBUR put Markey’s lead at six percentage points, while a Suffolk University/WHDH-TV poll gave him a towering 17-point advantage.

With less than six weeks until Election Day, Markey remains the comfortable favorite, although to understand why you have to read between the polling numbers, says Marc Landy, a political scientist at Boston College.

“Polls vary, and they should be taken with a salt-shaker of salt,” he says, “but what Markey’s got that’s more substantive is a lot of money, a lot of name recognition, and a very Democratic state.”

To overcome that, Gomez will need both elbow grease and a Markey misstep. He can run a brilliant campaign, Mr. Landy says, but unless Markey makes a major fumble, the Democrat’s advantages may be too significant to overcome.

But the Massachusetts Democratic establishment isn’t resting just yet. That skittish attitude comes courtesy of one man: Scott Brown.

1 | 2

Next