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Here are eight senators who have opted out of a reelection bid in 2014, giving hopefuls in both parties a rare shot at a US Senate seat – and, moreover, one that could flip control of the Senate.
Sen. Tom Harkin (D) of Iowa speaks on Capitol Hill on Dec. 28, 2012. He announced on Jan. 26 that he would not seek reelection. (Susan Walsh/AP/File photo)
2. Sen. Tom Harkin (D) of Iowa
No Iowa Democrat has ever served longer in the US Senate than five-term Sen.Tom Harkin, an old-school, liberal progressive best known for his early and sustained support for the landmark Americans With Disability Act. His decision to not seek reelection, announced on Jan. 26, gives Iowans their first open Senate race since 1974.
To Republicans, it's also a more likely shot at a turnover, and, perhaps, an early test of whether national Republican groups, such as Mr. Rove's Conservative Victory Project, can dissuade conservatives deemed unelectable from getting into the race or can diminish their prospects.
Iowa is a classic swing state, with a Republican governor and a split congressional delegation: two Republicans and two Democrats in the House, a six-term Republican and a five-term Democrat in the Senate. The state backed George W. Bush, narrowly, in 2004 and Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.
The high stakes of the 2014 Senate election have put pressure on potential candidates to come to a decision quickly. Four-term US Rep. Bruce Braley, the most likely Democratic candidate, announced on Feb. 7 that he will run for Senator Harkin's seat. Other Democrat prospects, not yet committed to run, include US Secretary of Agriculture and former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, US Rep. Dave Loebsack, and former Gov. Chet Culver, the son of former US Sen. John Culver (D).
On the Republican side: Rep. Steve King of Iowa, a leading tea party activist, has not yet decided to run for the Senate, but he starts an early favorite in a GOP primary, although with little support among moderates. Some of his controversial statements on issues such as immigration reform are out of step with a post-2012 election strategy of outreach by some Republicans to Hispanic groups. He would lose in a head-to-head race with each of the four leading Democratic prospects, according to a recent survey by Public Policy Polling.
"We're all concerned about Steve King's Todd Akin problem," said Steven Law, co-founder of the Conservative Victory Project, in comments to The New York Times. On Feb. 7, Representative King responded in an e-mail to supporters: "Nobody can bully me out of running for the U.S. Senate, not even Karl Rove and his hefty war chest.”
Tea party groups call the new Rove super PAC a bid to trump conservative grass-roots opinion with a Washington establishment viewpoint that also loses elections. "It's not a war on the tea party," countered Jonathan Collegio, spokesman for another Rove-founded super PAC, American Crossroads, in an e-mail. "Republicans have lost four to seven Senate seats not because of ideas but because of the candidates expressing the ideas," he added. "We're out to find and pick the best candidate."
Other GOP prospects for the open seat in Iowa include US Rep. Tom Latham, Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds, and conservative social activist Bob Vander Plaats.
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