Tea party's Richard Mourdock trails in Indiana Senate race, poll shows
Once favored to win the US Senate race in Indiana, the GOP's Richard Mourdock now trails by 11 points, a new poll shows. Independents, in particular, have abandoned him since his statement about pregnancy from rape and God's intent.
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While Mourdock’s favorability rankings have tanked, Mr. Donnelly’s have held steady. That’s especially true among independent voters, who make up about one-quarter of the Indiana electorate. Independent women have a 12 percent favorable versus 48 percent unfavorable view of Mourdock, and among independent men, 23 percent view him favorably and 51 percent view him unfavorably.Skip to next paragraph
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Independent voters are now breaking 3 to 1 for Donnelly. In September, Donnelly had an insignificant edge of 32 percent to 30 percent over Mourdock among that subset of voters.
Mourdock's deputy campaign manager, Brose McVey, challenged the poll's findings and charged that the pollsters did not release all of the data. The Mourdock campaign released its own internal data, showing Mourdock with a statistically insignificant two-point lead, 46 percent to 44 percent. The campaign's poll queried 600 voters and had a margin of error of 4 percent.
If Mourdock loses, the proximate cause may well be his ill-fated rape comments at the candidates' final debate. However, Friday’s poll shows another factor is at work: Mourdock's inability or unwillingness to consolidate state Republicans, including those faithful to former Sen. Richard Lugar (R), the man Mourdock bested in the GOP primary.
The bottom line, writes Indiana analyst Brian Howey, is this: In Indiana, what went around for Mourdock in the April primary may be going around for Donnelly in October. The bump in Donnelly’s polling numbers is identical to the size of Mourdock’s spring bounce, which led Howey to forecast a “potential landslide” for Mourdock for the primary.
That landslide came to pass. But Mourdock, Howey writes, misinterpreted that result.
“Just 15% of those Republican voters had voted for Mourdock because of his Tea Party ideology. Most voted Lugar out because they thought he was too old and had been in Congress too long,” Howey writes. “Mourdock and his campaign took the landslide victory for opposite reasons, believing it had validated his Tea Party stances against bipartisanship and consensus.”
It's telling that Mourdock is winning just 70 percent of Republican voters. Instead of consolidating the Lugar Republicans, Mourdock in May went on cable television and began a gaffe spree by quipping that his favorite thing is “to inflict my opinion on someone else.” It is that attitude, Howey writes, that “sowed the seeds for his probable defeat on Tuesday.”
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