Nebraska's GOP Senate primary: another tea party surprise?

It's not clear, however, who the strongest GOP opponent would be in November, although given the state's conservative makeup, any of the three would likely be the favorite to defeat Kerrey, says Wagner. And despite the vicious nature of the campaign, there's not that much difference in the candidates' positions: All are solidly conservative.

Bruning, favored by most of the GOP establishment, has taken a harsh beating from his primary opponents, who question how he became wealthy as state attorney general.

Although Fischer, with the Palin stamp of approval, is now being cast by some as the tea party choice, much of the conservative wing of the party has backed Stenberg. He has earned endorsements from Sen. Jim DeMint (R) of South Carolina – a godfather of the tea party movement – and his Senate Conservatives Fund, as well as the antitax Club for Growth.

Stenberg has tried to cast himself as the insurgent candidate, comparing himself with Richard Mourdock, the tea party candidate who defeated six-term Sen. Richard Lugar in Indiana's Republican Senate primary on May 8.

"I'd be the Richard Mourdock of the Nebraska race – the person who has the support of Club for Growth, US Sen. Jim DeMint, FreedomWorks," Stenberg told National Public Radio. "Jon Bruning is the establishment candidate. He has the establishment money and establishment endorsements."

But it's not really that simple. Bruning has also earned the backing of the Tea Party Express and Citizens United, as well as of former GOP presidential hopefuls Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee.

Almost $3 million in independent money has been spent on the race, almost all of it on Stenberg and Bruning. But in the end, their negative campaigns may have opened a path for Fischer to surge ahead.

Moreover, despite easy comparisons to Christine O'Donnell or Sharron Angle – the tea party-backed US Senate candidates from Delaware and Nevada, respectively, who won their GOP primaries against establishment candidates, then lost in the 2010 general election – Fischer may end up being a relatively strong opponent to Kerrey, if she wins the nomination.

She would certainly need to raise more money. Through the end of April, Fischer had raised less than $400,000. But she carries less baggage than Bruning, seems to have an energy that Stenberg's campaign lacks, and, in a solidly red state like Nebraska, her conservative credentials may be an asset.

"She’s much less extreme than the typical surprise insurgent candidate, if she happens to win," says Wagner. "But she’s also just not as known a quantity."

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