What went wrong for Mitt Romney in Colorado? (+video)
Mitt Romney downplayed expectations going into Tuesday night, and it was predicted he could lose to Rick Santorum in Minnesota and Missouri. But his loss in Colorado was a shocker.
Tuesday was a bad night for Mitt Romney.Skip to next paragraph
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He downplayed expectations going into the night, and the little polling that had been done suggested that he was likely to lose to Rick Santorum in the Minnesota caucuses and the Missouri primary (which, since it won't be used to select delegates, had only symbolic value).
But his loss in Colorado was a shocker.
Polls from Public Policy Polling showed him ahead by a comfortable 10 points in the state, and he won Colorado with 60 percent of the vote in 2008. Colorado even has a significant Mormon population – though far less than in Nevada, a state Mr. Romney won comfortably just a few days earlier – but it failed to help him much. Romney lost to Mr. Santorum by 5 points in Colorado, and was trounced in Missouri and Minnesota.
"Nobody saw this coming," says Kyle Saunders, a political scientist at Colorado State University, noting that the political betting market Intrade gave Romney a 97 percent chance of winning Colorado just before the caucuses. "I think there were some signs ... but everybody assumed that Romney's organization and advantages and money were going to carry the day for him."
So what went wrong for Romney in Colorado? Or, what did Rick Santorum do right? And what does it mean for the rest of the nomination battle?
First off, some caveats. Caucuses are not only notoriously hard to predict with polls, but they also represent a small fraction of the voters, typically the most energized and polarized wings of a party. Colorado's caucuses are closed – open only to registered Republicans – and so don't represent the views of the state's many independent voters.
In fact, in 2008, when Romney did so well in Colorado, it was in part because he appealed to those same voters who likely supported Santorum this year. Romney had positioned himself as the conservative alternative to John McCain; this time around, Romney was the mainstream candidate and the conservative faction of his party went for Santorum.
Turnout this year was low even for a caucus. On Tuesday night in Colorado, about 65,000 people voted – down from 2008, when more than 70,000 voted in the GOP caucuses, and only a small fraction of the state's Republican voters.
"In a caucus where something like 8 percent turnout is considered a huge number, pretty small differences can have an enormous influence on the results," says Seth Masket, a political scientist at the University of Denver. The fact that, on the eve of the caucuses, Santorum suddenly seemed to have a shot may have influenced some Coloradans to get out and vote for him, says Professor Masket.
And, in what now seems to be a mistake on Romney's part, Romney spent relatively little time or money in any of the three states that held contests on Tuesday. Santorum, on the other hand, focused heavily on all three – betting correctly that he would have a better shot there than in Florida or Nevada – and in the week before the caucuses spent a lot of time in Colorado's most conservative and evangelical counties. Clearly, his message connected with some of those voters.
Still, more than anything, the results Tuesday night speak to an enthusiasm gap for Romney that the candidate needs to take seriously. Santorum's supporters – who tend to be the voters, in places like Colorado Springs and the surrounding area, who identify most closely with his socially conservative values and message – were energized to get out to vote. Romney's were not.