Midterm elections: 12 House races to watch to judge size of a GOP 'wave'

Most observers expect Republicans to take over the House of Representatives, but more than 100 races could go either way. The magic number Republicans need to gain to take control: 39. Here are a handful of races to keep an eye on in the states with early-closing polls.

11. Missouri's Fourth

Charlie Riedel/AP/composite
Rep. Ike Skelton, a 17-term incumbent Democrat from Missouri, and his Republican challenger, Vicky Hartzler, who has tea party backing.

Ike Skelton, the Democratic congressman in this rural, conservative district, has been in Congress for 17 terms and represents one of the last of a dying breed, often referred to as a Truman Democrat. Indeed, he represents President Truman’s old district.

Economically liberal, socially conservative, and hawkish on defense, Congressman Skelton has managed to hang on in a Republican district for 34 years.

This time around, he’s being hammered for his support of cap-and-trade legislation and the economic stimulus package, though he broke ranks with Democrats to oppose health-care reform.

His opponent, Vicky Hartzler, has the backing of Sarah Palin and the tea party. She’s a social conservative who was the state spokeswoman for the Coalition to Protect Marriage.

This is a district that will almost certainly go Republican if Skelton were to leave, and it’s going to be a hard fight for him to retain his seat this year – despite a large fundraising advantage.

Polls in Missouri close at 8 p.m. Eastern.

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