Mitt Romney: Still more electable than Newt Gingrich?

Two things come to mind:

1. The backdrop for the GOP primary battle - Obama’s standing - has shifted in recent months, suggesting the general election will be a tougher fight than it once seemed. Although he’s still vulnerable, Obama’s poll numbers have been ticking up, and although the economy is still not good, it’s been moving in the right direction - the stock market has been strong, unemployment figures have gone down. As a result, instead of looking for a non-controversial, nice-guy candidate who can essentially step in and take over when Obama self-destructs, Republican voters seem to sense they’ll need a candidate who can go out there and actually take down the president, using whatever nasty tactics may be required. And they see more of a fighter in Gingrich than in Romney.
2. All along, it’s been clear that the general election will be about the economy. And there’s been an assumption - that has not been challenged until now - that in that context, a candidate with business experience, who can present himself as an expert on the economy (ie, Romney), would be the best choice to go up against Obama. But when voters are feeling economic distress, are they going to gravitate toward a candidate who understands the economy - or toward a candidate who understands them, and the problems they’re going through? History points toward the latter. Bill Clinton didn’t win in 1992 because voters thought he was some kind of economic genius. He won because he “felt their pain.” And that is something that Mitt Romney is almost uniquely badly positioned to do. The recent focus on Romney’s wealth, his taxes, his career at Bain, have all contributed to a narrative of a candidate who is out of touch with the concerns of average folks. According to exit polls from Saturday, Romney actually won voters who earn more than $200K a year. But Gingrich won voters who earn less than $50K a year, voters who described their financial position as precarious, voters who had experienced unemployment in their family, by a landslide.  

As RedState’s Erik Erikson wrote Saturday night: “Mitt Romney’s exit polling reflects he can get the votes of Washington, D.C. Republicans and those who think we should leave the fate of the country in their hands. But he cannot get the votes of those who think we need to reform and reduce the power of Washington, which I venture to say is a sizable portion of the base.”

In just nine days, we’ll find out if South Carolina was an aberration - or if it is a harbinger of things to come. But for now, it’s clear that many in the Republican base no longer see Romney as the most electable candidate. Romney has nine days to change that - or all bets are off.

Like your politics unscrambled? Bookmark DCDecoder.com

Previous

1 | 2