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Decoder Buzz

Government is serious. Democracy is sacred. And then there is the politics that actually gets people talking. Decoder Buzz adds a dash of perspective to the stories that are setting tongues wagging. 

State petitions to secede from US: Are they just helping liberals?

By Staff writer / 11.14.12

Angry voters from 34 states have now started secession petitions on a White House website intended to let individual citizens express their opinions about the direction of the US government.

Whether these disgruntled folks are just conservatives venting about President Obama’s reelection, or whether they really believe they’d have a brighter future in the United State of Georgia, say, is an open question. But they’ve received a lot of media attention in recent days, to the point where some on the right are asking this question: Are these people just helping the left?

That’s because the whole thing goes beyond the appearance of sore losing and nears the outer rings of planet lunacy. It makes conservatives look unhinged and foolish, in this view, setting them up as easy targets for the mockery of liberals. Take Jon Stewart, who on his “Daily Show” Tuesday night said he now understands why so many Southerners still fly the Confederate flag.

“It’s like keeping your fat pants after you lose some weight. You’re happy for now with the new you, but ..." Mr. Stewart said in a segment titled in part “Whine Country.”

Let’s back up a bit, shall we? The White House has a “We the People” forum section on its website that’s intended to allow online viewers to start or sign petitions on issues. If the petitions attract enough support, the administration is supposed to respond, although there’s enough fine print to allow the Obama team to wiggle out of taking up this issue. It’s the administration's website, anyway – not a constitutional convention.

Many of the 34 states that have petitions up are indeed red states won by Mitt Romney, though now voters from some Democratic states, such as Nevada and even Massachusetts, have them up, too. We would not be surprised if angry voters from all 50 states eventually start petitions since there are some irritated citizens everywhere, after all.

The one that’s gotten the most attention is the Texas petition, partly because it has the most signatures (more than 95,000 at last check) and partly because it’s Texas, and it used to be a separate nation, if you remember. Plus, Gov. Rick Perry (R) has dabbled in light secession hinting in the past.

So Governor Perry should be behind this, right? Wrong. His spokespeople are out there making clear he’s got nothing to do with this drive.

“Gov. Perry believes in the greatness of our Union and nothing should be done to change it. But he also shares the frustrations many Americans have with our federal government,” spokeswoman Catherine Frazier said in a statement to The Dallas Morning News.

Other conservatives have been blunter in their defense of the integrity of the nation that was kept together by Abraham Lincoln, a Republican. Over at the RedState blog, editor Erick Erickson – no softy, given that he wants to oust Speaker John Boehner in favor of Rep. Paul Ryanscoffs at the whole effort.

“We here at RedState are American citizens. We have no plans to secede from the union. If you do, good luck with that, but this is not the place for you,” he wrote on Tuesday.

At the National Review, Charles C.W. Cooke writes that he shares the anger and frustration of many conservatives with the election results, but the answer isn’t loose talk of ripping apart the Constitution. It’s focusing on continuing to push for a smaller federal government and more individual freedom within the existing federal structure.

“Talk of secession is asinine, counter-productive, and distracting,” he writes.

One of the best pieces of evidence supporting Mr. Cooke’s above conclusion is that these petitions are still up. They’re on a White House website, remember. If the Obama administration thought this movement truly undermined the White House, don’t you think it’d find a reason to take them down?

Voters line up at the Engine 26 Ladder 9 firehouse to vote on Election Day in New Orleans, Tuesday. (Gerald Herbert/AP)

Paul Ryan blames loss on surge in 'urban areas.' Is that right?

By Staff Writer / 11.13.12

Did the Romney/Ryan ticket lose because of turnout among urban voters? That’s what GOP VP nominee Rep. Paul Ryan implied Tuesday during an interview with a Wisconsin television station.

Representative Ryan said that he and presidential nominee partner Mitt Romney entered election night full of confidence, since the poll numbers they were looking at showed they had “a pretty good chance of winning.”

Then electoral numbers came in running the other direction.

“When we saw the turnout that was occurring in urban areas that [was] unprecedented, it did come as a bit of a shock. So those are the toughest losses to have – the ones that catch you by surprise,” Ryan told WISN in Milwaukee, a CNN affiliate station.

Ryan was taking some heat in the blogosphere Tuesday for the “urban areas” part of the above comment. Some saw it as a coded reference to “blacks.” We won’t bother to quote this discussion – if you want to see it, just search “Paul Ryan” in Twitter and read the vitriol that appears.

But we’re surprised that Ryan says he was surprised by the urban turnout. After all, most of the battleground states ended up voting pretty much as the average of pre-election polls indicated they would. That’s how New York Times polling analyst Nate Silver ended up calling the results in all 50 states. With predictions that were pretty darn public at the time.

Maybe the GOP campaign’s internal polling showed something different, and maybe the candidates believed it. But you think they’d at least have taken a glance at something outside their own bubble.

Obviously, the minority vote went heavily for President Obama. That’s a big reason he won. But this was a fairly predictable element. Plus, though final numbers aren’t really in yet, it doesn’t appear that there were more minority voters overall in 2012 than you’d have expected from a straight demographic prediction.

With the exception of 1992, when Ross Perot’s third party candidacy reshaped the electorate a bit, the white share of the vote has simply been on a steady decline. This is due to the pattern of the population, not urban turnout numbers, writes Matthew Iglesias on Slate’s Moneybox blog.

“There’s no discernable ‘Obama surge’ of minority voting here at all,” according to Mr. Iglesias.

It’s true that some battleground states saw a surge in overall turnout, which might have been powered by urban-area minorities. According to ballot counts as of Nov. 12 compiled by the aforementioned Nate Silver, turnout in Nevada was up 4.5 percent, for instance, when compared with 2008.

But Nevada has long been a fast-growing state, albeit one battered by the decline of the housing economy. And North Carolina, a state Romney won, also showed a turnout increase, of 3.6 percent.

Meanwhile, overall turnout in Pennsylvania and Ohio appears to have declined, according to preliminary figures compiled by Silver. Yet Ryan singled out Ohio as a state where he was especially “shocked” by the results.

Maybe the Romney campaign thought urban turnout in Ohio would plunge sharply, and it didn’t. But all indications are that what really hurt the GOP in the Buckeye State was Romney’s inability to explain his position on the auto bailout in a way that appealed to Ohio's white working class voters.

This July 2011 file photo made available on the International Security Assistance Force's Flickr website shows the former Commander of International Security Assistance Force and US Forces-Afghanistan Gen. David Petraeus shaking hands with Paula Broadwell, co-author of 'All In: The Education of General David Petraeus.' (ISAF/AP)

Could Petraeus scandal enable fiscal cliff deal by diverting media glare?

By / 11.13.12

Everyone was expecting this to be a week of high drama in Washington: In the wake of his reelection, President Obama would begin official negotiations with congressional Republicans to fix the so-called “fiscal cliff,” the combination of automatic spending cuts and massive tax increases scheduled to hit at the end of the year.

Both sides have indicated a desire to work together, but the policy preferences between them remain stark, and a deal is far from certain. If they fail to find a solution, the ramifications would be potentially disastrous for the nation's economy.

Under normal circumstances, this kind of high-stakes maneuvering would be the subject of intense media scrutiny, with nonstop cable news coverage, and partisans on both sides trying to gain leverage in the press and behind the scenes.

Instead, what we got this week was a different kind of drama entirely – one that’s more reminiscent of high school, but that has sucked up virtually all the oxygen in the nation's capital.

We’re referring, of course, to the adultery scandal involving former CIA Director David Petraeus and his biographer, Paula Broadwell – a mess that has now expanded to ensnare other officials, with the discovery of a trove of apparently inappropriate e-mails between Gen. John Allen, the top US commander in Afghanistan, and another woman, Jill Kelley, who was also on the receiving end of threatening e-mails from Ms. Broadwell.

It has all played out like a real-life episode of “Homeland,” Showtime’s popular CIA drama. As New York Rep. Peter King (R) commented in a recent television interview: “It has the elements, in some ways, of a Hollywood movie, or a trashy novel.”

And naturally, it’s the kind of story the chattering class simply cannot resist. That’s primarily because it involves sex, but also because there’s a suspicious timeline (who knew what when) involved. Most important, because of the critical nature of Mr. Petraeus's and General Allen’s positions, it has raised real questions about whether national security might have been put at risk – or, at least, whether these high-level officials were unduly distracted from their extremely important, taxpayer-funded jobs.

The scandal has created a big, unexpected problem for the president, who now has to scramble to fill two top personnel gaps on his national security team.

But there may be one silver lining: It is, so far, allowing the fiscal cliff maneuverings to proceed with only a fraction of the attention they would otherwise have received. And that may ultimately be more conducive to getting a deal.

As The New York Times’s David Brooks writes Tuesday: “The liberal left wing, like the Tea Party types, has an incentive to build television ratings by fulminating against their foes. But President Obama and John Boehner have an incentive to create a low-decibel businesslike atmosphere. The opinion-entertainment complex longs for the war track. The practitioners should long for the deal-making track.”

At the moment, this so-called “opinion-entertainment complex” is currently getting all its entertainment needs (and more) supplied by reports of thousands of apparently inappropriate e-mails sent between Allen and Ms. Kelley, as well as an unnamed FBI agent who was removed from the case for sending shirtless photos of himself to Kelley, and new details on how Petraeus and Broadwell tried to hide their own communications by using a pseudonymous Gmail account in which they drafted, but never sent, racy emails to each other.

And that giant distraction may, in fact, be providing both sides in the fiscal cliff negotiations with an unexpected respite from the spotlight. The issue's not being ignored, of course, and it will likely gain more attention toward the week's end, as Obama and congressional leaders actually sit down together. But for now, the fiscal cliff story is on the back-burner – and the absence of a media feeding frenzy surrounding the negotiations may be the best thing going for those who hope a deal will actually get done.

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney delivers his concession speech last Wednesday in Boston. (David Goldman/AP)

Might an idea from Mitt Romney save US from 'fiscal cliff'? (+video)

By Staff writer / 11.13.12

Might an idea from Mitt Romney keep the United States from going over the "fiscal cliff"? That’s a topic that’s rattling around Washington’s policy blogosphere at the moment.

At first glance this seems unlikely – Democrats often accused Mr. Romney of making vague assertions instead of actual policy proposals, particularly on fiscal issues. But at one point the GOP nominee did float the notion of a cap on income tax deductions. Some experts now say such a limit could be an important element in a deficit-reduction agreement palatable to both parties.

“A cap just might be a Republican-friendly way to get what Democrats want,” writes Matthew O’Brien, associate editor for business and economics at The Atlantic.

If you recall, during the campaign the cap thing came up in the context of how to pay for Romney’s proposed across-the-board 20 percent tax rate reduction. The former Massachusetts governor vowed that this reduction wouldn’t cost the US Treasury anything, in part because he’d eliminate deductions and close loopholes to keep tax revenue up.

But he wouldn’t say which deductions in particular would get whacked – probably because many are popular, such as the mortgage interest deduction and the deduction for charitable donations. Eventually, he said that perhaps people would be allowed a certain dollar figure of deductions they could take as they choose, say $28,000.

For Democrats, the appeal of this idea is twofold. One, it’s a tax increase on the wealthy that doesn’t depend on actually increasing the tax rate, which remains a red flag for many Republicans. Two, it’s got tremendous mathematical power. A hard cap on deductions would hit the wealthy much, much harder than it would hit the middle class, or even the upper middle class.

Let’s raise the cap to $50,000, just to be generous. As Mr. O’Brien points out, this would raise $59 billion in 2015 if tax rates otherwise remain the same. Fully 73 percent of this revenue would come from households whose income exceeds $1 million. Households making less than $200,000 would pay essentially zilch in extra bucks to Uncle Sam.

Wow! Way to zap the car-elevator set, Mitt. And it’s a Republican idea. So how could the GOP now object?

We’ll tell you how – by objecting. This is a tax hike in sheep’s clothing, and the question is whether the GOP congressional leadership will treat it as such. Yes, conservative William Kristol over at the Weekly Standard on Sunday said it’s time for Republicans to give on the question of higher taxes on the wealthy. But not everyone in the party is willing to make that sort of retreat.

House Speaker John Boehner (R) of Ohio has said he’s still opposed to anybody’s tax rates going up. But he has suggested he’s open to new revenues through “tax reform.” Would a deduction cap qualify here? That’s not yet clear, and it’s one of the most intriguing questions hanging over the fiscal cliff negotiations, which begin in earnest this week.

Furthermore, President Obama proposed a version of a deduction cap in 2011 to help pay for his American Jobs Act, which Congress didn’t pass. At the time, institutions that benefit from charitable deductions, such as universities, art museums, and so forth, objected strenuously to the limit, since they depend heavily on millionaires’ contributions. If charity isn’t excluded from a cap proposal, expect to see this opposition rise up again.

One last point: Any cap on deductions would have to be part of a larger deficit-reduction package. It wouldn’t raise nearly enough money to solve the problem by itself. Mr. Obama’s cap by itself would have generated $164 billion over 10 years, points out Suzy Khimm on The Washington Post’s WonkBlog Tuesday. In contrast, allowing the Bush-era tax reductions to expire for those making more than $250,000 would generate a whopping $1 trillion over the same time period.

A couple sits on chairs in a near-empty room to watch Fox News commentator Karl Rove on a big-screen television during a Republican Party election night gathering in the club level of Sports Authority Field at Mile High in Denver on Tuesday, Nov. 6. (David Zalubowski/AP)

Election's No. 2 loser was Karl Rove, and Democrats are openly gleeful (+video)

By Correspondent / 11.09.12

If Mitt Romney was the primary loser on Election Night, then the No. 2 loser, by universal consensus, appears to have been Karl Rove. And Democrats couldn’t be happier about it.

Mr. Rove, of course, ran two of the biggest outside-donor groups this cycle, Crossroads GPS and American Crossroads, whose primary tasks were to help defeat President Obama and take back the Senate for Republicans. He raised hundreds of millions from wealthy Republican donors – and in the end, those donors got very little for their money.

Republicans not only failed to take the White House, but only two of the Senate candidates backed by Rove’s groups won. As a report for the Sunlight Foundation estimated, American Crossroads got a 1.29 percent return on its spending. Crossroads GPS fared slightly better, with a 14.4 percent return.

Rove also publicly predicted that Mr. Romney would win with 285 electoral votes (he wrongly assumed Romney would take Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, and Florida). And he was the center of a bizarre episode on Election Night when, live on Fox News, he accused the network of prematurely calling Ohio for Romney (he was wrong there, too).

Needless to say, this has all given the Left a gigantic case of schadenfreude. After Democrats suffered bitter defeats at the hands of Rove in 2000 and 2004, and then heard him endlessly referred to as a “mastermind” strategist and a political “genius,” many can barely contain their glee.

New York Sen. Chuck Schumer said at a Monitor breakfast with reporters on Thursday: “Karl Rove’s reputation is going to take a significant hit. If Crossroads were a business and Rove was the CEO, he’d be fired for getting a poor return for his investors.”

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) of Ohio – one of Rove’s top targets, who nevertheless won reelection Tuesday – couldn’t resist taking a direct shot on Election Night, crowing: “Karl Rove had a bad night.” And top Obama strategist David Axelrod said that if he were one of Rove’s donors, he’d “be asking where my refund was.”

Even many conservatives are taking Rove to task. Donald Trump, who was so upset about the election results that he called for a “revolution” on Twitter, was almost as unhappy with Rove’s performance, tweeting: “Every race @CrossroadsGPS ran ads in, the Republicans lost. What a waste of money.” Likewise, Richard Viguerie, a veteran GOP operative, wrote that "in any logical universe, establishment Republican consultants such as Karl Rove ... would never be hired to run or consult on a national campaign again – and no one would give a dime to their ineffective Super PACs, such as American Crossroads."

Rove’s defenders have been arguing that his efforts prevented the presidential election from being a blowout, putting Romney and other Republicans in a position where they had at least a chance to win. The beleagured Jonathan Collegio, chief spokesman for American Crossroads, has been on cable television nonstop in recent days, pointing out that the Obama campaign outspent the Romney campaign on TV ads by more than $150 million, and – with the exception of a few self-funded Republicans – most Democratic Senate candidates outraised their GOP counterparts this cycle, leaving it to outside organizations to make up the difference.

Rove himself, in his weekly Wall Street Journal column, blamed the election results on a number of other factors, including hurricane Sandy, for “interrupting” Romney’s momentum, The New York Times headline writer who titled Romney’s 2008 op-ed on the auto bailout “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt,” and the hotel worker who surreptitiously recorded Romney’s now-infamous remarks about the 47 percent.

But in an appearance on Fox News on Thursday, Rove created yet another mini-controversy when he said that President Obama won reelection “by suppressing the vote.” (It turns out he was not referring to any actual attempts to prevent people from voting, but rather the Obama campaign’s efforts, through negative ads, to paint Romney as an unacceptable alternative – something Rove himself was accused of doing to Sen. John Kerry in 2004, and a tactic that has pretty much become par for the course in modern politics.)

The real question, of course, is how much any of this will affect Rove’s reputation and position as the GOP’s premier strategist and fundraiser going forward.

Our prediction? Not a whole lot. For one thing, politics is littered with operatives whose track records never seem to get in the way of future opportunities. Remember the famous “Shrum curse” – referring to Democratic strategist Bob Shrum, who worked on no fewer than eight losing presidential campaigns? And of course, if you put this election aside, Rove’s track record is still pretty good.

In addition, one of Rove's biggest past accomplishments was helping George W. Bush win 35 percent of the Hispanic vote as part of his 2000 victory – a share that today seems positively colossal for a Republican (Romney won just 27 percent of Hispanics). That's a particularly relevant success story, given the need for Republicans to bring more Hispanics into the party fold in the future. If the GOP decides that a new Hispanic strategy will be key to its success going forward, who knows, Rove might just be the one to spearhead it. 

If nothing else, Rove's longtime connections to the Bush family are likely to keep him in a prime position: Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush's name is often mentioned as a potential 2016 presidential candidate. And now it appears that Governor Bush's son, George P. Bush, is preparing to run for office in Texas –with many already calling him a future star of the party.

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney at the Boston Convention Center in Boston, Wednesday, Nov. 7. (Stephan Savoia/AP)

Why Romney lost: Was the candidate the problem?

By Correspondent / 11.08.12

In 1992, Democratic strategist James Carville immortalized the phrase: “It’s the economy, stupid,” making the point that in the end, most presidential elections come down to something pretty simple.

And as we wade through all the post-mortem analyses about what went wrong for Republicans this year – They've permanently marginalized themselves as a party of old white men! They got schooled by the high-tech Obama turnout operation! They were sunk by the loony-tunes gaffes of tea party types! – well, we just keep coming back to something much more basic: “It was the candidate, stupid.”

We take no pleasure in piling on Mitt Romney here. Running for president is hard, and losing (twice) is obviously a bitter pill. We hope Mr. Romney can take some solace in the knowledge that, as he said in his concession speech, he left it all on the field.

And there's no question that there are larger issues for Republicans to think through here – above all, how to win more support from Hispanics, the nation's fastest-growing voting bloc. 

But we can easily envision a 2016 race featuring, say, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, in which the GOP's share of the Hispanic vote suddenly, magically rises. Or a 2016 race featuring, say, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, that somehow manages to attract more young people and women.

Notably, as Sean Trende points out in a trenchant analysis in RealClearPolitics, Romney’s loss may actually have had more to do with white voters who chose to stay home than it did with the increased turnout among minorities. And in the end, we think Romney’s lack of appeal to both whites and even many non-whites wasn’t just about policy – but about personality.

Because, let’s face it: Romney was not a great candidate. He won the nomination because every other potential top-tier candidate decided to take a pass. Let’s not forget, during the GOP primary season, we in the media actually spent weeks covering Herman Cain as the field’s frontrunner. Rick Santorum, the sweater-vested ultra-conservative former senator from Pennsylvania, who compared homosexuality to bestiality and had lost his own seat by a whopping 18 points, wound up being Romney’s stiffest competition.

We agree with the pundits who say that, in retrospect, it was incredibly ill-advised for the Republicans to nominate – during a cycle that was likely to be dominated by tales of economic hardship – a multimillionaire who had made his fortune in the kind of investment activity many Americans associate specifically with the crisis at hand.

But Romney’s biography wasn’t the biggest problem. It was Romney himself.

He was never able to connect with voters on the trail. Worse, he wasn’t ever able to deliver a speech that sounded like he had any genuine political convictions. It always felt mechanical, artificial, like a series of talking points he’d just memorized. In a way, Romney’s political biography – with its moderate-to-conservative-and-back-to-sort-of-moderate-again path – may have been the bigger problem, if only because it seemed to reinforce the overall sense that there was no there there.  

True, Romney had that one good debate performance. But even that, in hindsight, seemed to conceal Romney more than it revealed him, since he spent most of it blurring differences between himself and the president.

And an inordinate (perhaps unfair) amount of the campaign wound up being devoted to Romney's awkward, off-script remarks. There was the infamous “47 percent” comment. The insult to the Brits during the Olympics. The “I have some friends who are NASCAR team owners” and “Ann drives a couple of Cadillacs.”

The problem with those types of comments weren’t that they highlighted Romney’s wealth, his plutocrat image. Rather, they highlighted his inability, in various types of social circumstances, to muster up appropriate responses. You can call it a lack of emotional intelligence. Or you can call it a lack of acting ability. (MSNBC actually had James Lipton, of Inside the Actor’s Studio, on as a guest repeatedly throughout this cycle to critique Romney’s style on the stump, and needless to say, Mr. Lipton was never impressed.).

Modern politicians are, for better or worse, performers – and to be successful, they must establish a genuine connection with their audience. Of course, they have to be serious too (Herman Cain was a natural performer, but he had nothing of substance to back it up). But they must get the public to buy their performance, and above all, seem comfortable in their own skin. Romney never did.

TV announcers do live shots from President Obama's victory party at McCormick Place in Chicago Tuesday. (Melanie Stetson Freeman/The Christian Science Monitor )

Election 2012: Has Nate Silver destroyed punditry?

By Staff writer / 11.07.12

Has Nate Silver destroyed punditry? This question arises due to New York Times poll analyst Mr. Silver’s accuracy in predicting the 2012 election results and the media context in which that occurred.

For weeks now, some in the traditional punditocracy – the folks who look at a poll, call a campaign official, then consult their gut feelings over lunch – have hammered Silver for his statistics-heavy approach. He gave a false appearance of certainty, they said. He was way too bullish on President Obama’s chances, they said. His numbers were skewed, they said.

The classic exposition of these views was “Nate Silver: One-term celebrity?” a piece by Politico’s Dylan Byers published on October 29.

Then came the actual voting. Silver got all 50 states right, down to his last-minute prediction that Florida would be a virtual tie.

Traditional pundit George Will of The Washington Post opinion section? He forecast that Mitt Romney would win with 321 electoral votes. Wrong!

New York Post pundit Dick Morris? He said Romney would win with 325 electoral votes. Wrong again!

CNBC pundit/host Jim Cramer? He thought Obama would roll up 440 electoral votes. We’ve gone over the states several times and we don’t see how that’s even mathematically possible.

Given this disparity, has the venerable art form of political punditry been discredited beyond redemption?

We’ve got some thoughts on that, surprise, surprise. The first is that it’s easy to make pundits look like witch doctors. All you have to do is cherry-pick the worst predictions, which we’ve done above, and suddenly a whole class of cable news analysts appears foolish.

Some pundits were right, or at least more right than Mr. Morris. Ron Brownstein of the National Journal had Obama to win, but a low predicted total of 288 electoral votes, for example. Donna Brazile of the Democratic National Committee said Obama would get 313 electoral votes, which was pretty close to what happened.

Slate has a fun dart-board graphic of pundit hits and misses, which you can peruse here.

After all, Nate Silver isn’t that special. That’s our second point. Many analysts produce prediction models based on lots of polls, plus the addition of economic indicators and other data. If you know your way around a regression analysis, it isn’t that hard.

Political scientist Josh Putnam of Davidson College did a math-based forecast at his Frontloading HQ blog, and he was dead-on, just like Silver. Sam Wang and the Princeton Election Consortium thought Romney would win Florida, but got everything else right.

Heading into the next election cycle, more and more media outlets will want their own Nate Silvers. After all, in the run-up to Election Day, 20 percent of all New York Times web visits included a stop at Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog. In that sense Silver has dented the old way of doing things, which may never be quite the same. The future of political journalism includes more numbers. We, um, veteran types will have to get used to that fact.

But the Dick Morrises of the world aren’t going away either. In today’s polarized media landscape, one purpose is to inform, but another is to make the news consumer feel comfortable. Fox News will give lots of air time to pundits who just happen to lean Republican. MSNBC will do the same for liberals. Viewers who want to break out of partisan closed-feedback loops will need to try to discern which “experts” know what they’re talking about and which are just repeating what they think the partisan skew of the audience demands.

Because – and here’s our last point – it’s really about time that journalism stepped up its performance in this area. The politicians themselves adopted a quantification-heavy approach to their business long ago. In terms of voter analysis, microtargeting, and other techniques they’re far beyond what the media discusses. In the book “Moneyball,” Michael Lewis wrote how statistics revolutionized baseball. Well, the “Voterball” revolution is upon us, if it hasn’t already occurred.

Why do you think Mitt Romney went to Pennsylvania on the campaign’s last weekend? Given the scope of his loss, it’s clear he wasn’t trying to run up his score or force Obama to play defense in the state. No, he knew he was quite likely to lose Ohio, and Pennsylvania provided the slim chance of an alternate path to 270 electoral votes. That’s what his quants told him. Dick Morris? He was out of the loop.

President Obama and supporters celebrate Election Night victory on Nov. 6 at McCormick Place in Chicago. (Melanie Stetson Freeman/Staff)

Election results 2012: Who won it for Obama? (+video)

By Staff Writer / 11.07.12

President Obama was reelected Tuesday night in large part because of strong support from women and minorities. The lesson of his victory for both parties, but particularly Republicans, may be this: The primacy of white male voters has passed. In the modern era, it takes a diverse coalition to win the White House.

Look at the basic breakdown of Mr. Obama’s victory, according to exit polls (which may yet be revised). He won 93 percent of African-Americans, 71 percent of Hispanics, and 73 percent of Asians. He took 55 percent of the overall female vote, down only one percentage point from his comparable 2008 showing.

Mitt Romney, meanwhile, won about 59 percent of the white vote. That’s the best a GOP nominee has done among whites since 1988, and not too long ago such a performance might have guaranteed a winning margin of 270 electoral votes. After all, whites still make up 72 percent of US voters.

But that percentage has inexorably grown smaller election by election. In 2008 whites were 74 percent of the electorate. Given Obama’s popularity among minorities, Mr. Romney would have needed the support of even more whites to win – and Obama did well (or well enough) among white women, particularly single and young white women.

Romney won white men by 25 points. It wasn’t enough.

As to other lessons from the preliminary exit poll data, it’s clear that Hispanics are quickly becoming a political force that national politicians must acknowledge. They increased their share of the electorate by about three percentage points; at that pace, they’ll tie or pass African-Americans as the largest minority voting bloc in 2016.

The Hispanic vote helped produce the dead heat in Florida, for instance. That’s a state Romney needed to win to have plausible paths to 270 electoral votes, and he could reasonably have expected to do well among the state’s conservative Cuban-heritage population. But Obama performed three percentage points better among Florida’s Hispanics than he did in 2008, winning 60 percent of their votes. If he emerges as the winner there, that will be a big reason.

Winning the independent vote also no longer appears to be as important as it once seemed. Romney led Obama among self-described independents, 50 percent to 45 percent. That’s a turnaround from four years ago, when Obama won them, 52 percent to 44 percent.

But independents, like whites, were a slightly smaller share of the electorate in 2012. And a declaration of independence is not necessarily indicative of a voter’s ideology. Obama won self-declared moderates, 56 percent to 41 percent. Obama also took 86 percent of the liberal vote, while Romney won 82 percent of conservatives.

Does that mean 14 percent of voters who think they’re leftish voted for Romney, and 18 percent who believe they’re to the right side of the spectrum voted for Obama? It does, according to exit polls. Sometimes it’s the little numbers that are the most surprising. [Editor's note: The percentage of voters who think they're "leftish" was incorrectly stated in the original.]

President Obama, first lady Michelle Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, his wife Jill BIden, and supporters celebrate victory at McCormick Place Thursday in Chicago. (Melanie Stetson Freeman/The Christian Science Monitor )

In passionate speech, Obama says 'You have made me a better president' (+video)

By Correspondent / 11.07.12

In 2008, President Obama made history by becoming the first African-American elected to the White House. In 2012, he did it again – this time, by winning reelection despite a 7.9 percent unemployment rate and a sluggish economy, in a contest against a former businessman, Mitt Romney, who had made the economy the centerpiece of his campaign.

According to exit polls, nearly 60 percent of voters cited the economy as the most important issue – but critically, more voters were inclined to penalize former President George W. Bush than Mr. Obama for the country’s economic woes. And while three-quarters of voters described economic conditions as "not so good" or "poor," they were almost evenly split on which candidate would do a better job handling the economy.

It was a hard-fought win for the president, after a campaign that even to many of his supporters seemed notably less inspirational – and far more negative – than his 2008 run. And his margin of victory was, as anticipated, much narrower than four years ago.

"Democracy in a nation of 300 million can be noisy and messy and complicated," Obama said in his victory speech at Chicago’s McCormick Place, where he came onstage with his whole family to the sounds of “Signed, Sealed, Delivered." "And when we go through tough times, when we make big decisions as a country, it necessarily stirs passions, stirs up controversy. That won't change after tonight. And it shouldn't.... But despite all our differences, most of us share certain hopes for American's future."  

"We are an American family and we rise or fall together as one nation,” Obama added. “Whether I earned your vote or not, I have listened to you, I have learned from you, and you have made me a better president.”

Obama also said he “has never been more hopeful about America,” and said he looks forward to sitting down with Romney in coming weeks to “talk about where we can work together to move this country forward.”

For his part, in his concession speech, Mr. Romney described the nation as being "at a critical point," adding: "At a time like this we can't risk partisan bickering and political posturing." Calling it "a time of great challenges for America," he said, "I pray that the president will be successful in guiding our nation."

As many observers predicted, it was the state of Ohio that ultimately put Obama over the top Tuesday night (at least, based on most network calls). Ohio had been seen by both sides as the most important battleground of this campaign cycle – a state hard hit by job losses, but where Obama’s support for the auto bailout appeared to provide a critical, enduring edge.

Significantly, Obama’s message of looking out for the middle class appeared to carry more weight than Romney’s message focusing on job creation. According to exit polls, three-quarters of voters said Obama's policies would favor the middle class or the poor, while 54 percent felt Romney's policies would favor the rich.

The victory was a testament to the Obama campaign’s vaunted turnout operation, which brought its supporters to the polls in numbers that in some districts appeared to rival 2008’s turnout, despite what had been seen as generally dampened enthusiasm.

It also vindicated many of the preelection polls, which some conservatives had criticized as oversampling Democrats. In the end, exit polls appeared to indicate that in many states, the projected ratios of Democrats to Republicans had been fairly accurate.

The question now is what kind of mandate – if any – Obama may have going into his second term, and what kind of cooperation he may get from Congress going forward. The country remains sharply, and in many cases bitterly, divided. And although the Senate will remain in Democratic hands, Republicans will still control the House of Representatives. Given the wide chasm separating the parties on issues ranging from taxes to entitlements, it seems unlikely that there will be much common ground going forward.

But one area where political pressures suggest there may be at least a chance for some sort of compromise is immigration – in part because this election underscored once again just how badly the Republican party needs to improve its standing among Hispanic voters.

Indeed, the racial divide remains one of the most glaring aspects of the 2012 electoral results. Preliminary exit polls showed Obama winning just 40 percent of the white vote (down 3 points from 2008) to Romney’s 58 percent. Among white men, Obama performed even more poorly, winning just 36 percent (a drop of 5 points from 2008). But Obama won 69 percent of Hispanics, to Romney’s 29 percent, and 93 percent of blacks, to Romney’s 6 percent. 

And although the economy was the dominant issue, in the end, the Obama campaign's focus on so-called “women’s issues” throughout this election cycle, from abortion to contraception, also appeared to pay off – since the traditional Democratic gender gap appeared to hold for the president. Exit polls showed Obama won women by 12 points, while Romney won men by just 7 points.

• Staff writer Liz Marlantes contributed to this report.

A boy holding an American flag peeks out of the voting booth as his mother votes at the Town House during the presidential election in New Hampton, N.H., Tuesday. (Jessica Rinaldi/REUTERS)

Mitt Romney's route to victory is quickly narrowing

By Correspondent / 11.06.12

The night is still young – and it could drag on for quite a while yet – but already, Mitt Romney’s path to victory is looking significantly steeper.

Pennsylvania, where Mr. Romney made a last-minute play, even visiting the state on Sunday, has been called for President Obama, as has Michigan – a state that was probably never really in contention, but where Mr. Romney was born and had at least made a small show of contesting.

Also in Mr. Obama’s column (according to most news networks): Wisconsin – a battleground state where polls had shown a relatively tight race, and where the presence on the GOP ticket of Rep. Paul Ryan, who hails from Wisconsin, had given Republicans hope of taking the state.

In some ways, perhaps, the biggest psychological blow to Romney may have come from tiny New Hampshire, a state with just four electoral votes, but where Romney owns a home and was hoping to pull off a victory.

Meanwhile, the Southern battleground states – Florida, Virginia, and even North Carolina – all remain too close to call. Needless to say, those are all states Romney must win (and was, in fact, favored to win according to the most recent polling). The fact that those results are taking longer to come in is not an encouraging sign for Romney.

What this all means, in practical terms, is that Romney’s route to 270 electoral votes is getting narrower and narrower.

For one thing, it means Romney now absolutely must win Ohio – a state that, at this writing, is still too close to call, but where so far Obama appears to be performing well (and where the Senate race has already been called in favor of the Democratic incumbent, Sherrod Brown). In nearly every electoral map scenario, pretty much the only ways Romney could have possibly won without Ohio involved taking either Wisconsin or New Hampshire (along with nearly every other battleground). Those routes are now closed off.

Mr. Obama, on the other hand, has a variety of possible paths to get to 270. At this point, assuming he winds up winning Nevada, where recent polls had shown him with a decent lead, the only other battleground state he would need is Ohio to put him over the top. But even without Ohio, he could win – if he takes, say, Iowa and Colorado.

Notably, Florida is looking close enough that it may wind up in a recount. But given the way the rest of the map is going, Florida's results might not even matter.

It may not be such a long night, after all.

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