Romney’s wavering path on abortion. Do voters care?

Abortion is a tricky issue for both Romney and Obama campaigns. In polls, a plurality agrees that abortion should be generally available. But a substantial number want to restrict its availability.

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Today, that last phrase – “dictated by judicial mandate” – is what has abortion rights advocates worried.

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Romney was saying that the legality of abortion should be left to the states, implying that Roe v. Wade had been judicial overreach. More recently, Romney’s campaign website calls the 1973 landmark US Supreme Court decision legalizing abortion “a case of blatant judicial activism,” and he promises to “nominate judges who know the difference between personal opinion and the law” – presumably including US Supreme Court justices more in line with his thinking.

Four of the nine Supreme Court justices are in their 70s. They could serve for many more years. But should any of them retire, the next president would nominate their successor. If that’s Mitt Romney, the likelihood of a new direction on federal abortion law is greater. And as Slate’s David Weigel points out, “Overturn Roe, and in a vast swath of the country abortion is illegal, immediately.”

During the Republican primary campaign, Romney told Fox News commentator Mike Huckabee that he “absolutely” supports a Constitutional amendment banning abortion.

As the presidential campaign accelerates toward Election Day Nov. 6, both sides are pushing new TV ads on abortion.

An Obama ad – featuring a snippet from a 2007 Republican primary debate for the 2008 election – warns that Romney wants to ban “all abortions.” A Romney ad has a woman – a former Obama supporter – pointing out that Romney “in fact thinks abortion should be an option in cases of rape, incest, or to save a mother’s life” – the point Romney himself emphasizes in campaign appearances.

Abortion is a tricky issue for both campaigns.

A CBS/New York Times poll last month had a plurality of those surveyed (42 percent) agreeing that abortion should be “generally available.” But a substantial 35 percent said it should be “available under stricter limits” – presumably something closer to Romney’s current position – and 20 percent said abortion “should not be permitted.”

While anti-abortion groups and Romney running mate Rep. Paul Ryan (at least before he joined the ticket) oppose the procedure under any circumstances, Romney’s allowing for some important exceptions appears not to be a political problem for social conservatives.

“We wouldn’t have endorsed him if I didn’t truly believe he’s truly pro-life and has that conviction,” Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of the anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List, told Talking Points Memo.