Obama gets bigger 'bounce' than Romney did, but it’s more like a 'blip'
Post-convention polling shows a modest 'bounce' for President Obama, which is better than Mitt Romney did last week. But the race is way too close to call, and many voters remain undecided.
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Gallup’s daily tracking poll for Friday put Obama's job approval rating at 52 percent, the highest it’s been since the killing of Osama bin Laden. Obama has also moved to a three-point lead over Mitt Romney among registered voters (48-45 percent), up from Obama's one-point margin over the last nine days.
“It is possible that these upticks are short-lived and that the race will devolve back to a parity by next week,” Gallup editor-in-chief Frank Newport wrote in his morning-after analysis. “On the other hand, if Obama builds on and sustains his higher job approval rating and lead over Romney, it could signal a possible resetting of the presidential race as it enters the remaining three-and-a-half weeks before the first debate on Oct. 3.”
By comparison, Romney’s standing bounced not at all after last week’s Republican convention.
Morning-after convention polls can evaporate pretty quickly, and Friday’s grim jobs report just hours after Obama’s convention speech Thursday night may hasten that. Plus, post-convention bounces going back to 1964 have averaged a healthier five points. Still, an upticked three point plus for Obama in a very close race can make the difference between a second term in office and packing his bags for Chicago come January.
A fuller picture of recent polls brings a mixed picture for Obama (and for Romney).
In addition, according to Ipsos/Reuters, Obama’s ratings on his personal attributes have increased across some metrics: “Tough enough for the job” is up 4 points to 42 percent; “Represents America” is up 4 points to 44 percent; “Will protect American jobs” is up 4 points to 40 percent; “Can be effective in Washington” is up 4 points to 38 percent; “Presidential” is up 3 points to 45 percent; “Understands people like me” is up 3 points to 44 percent; and “Has the right values” is up 3 points to 44 percent.