Will secret technology help rogue nations get nuclear weapons?

What prevents a profusion of laser-enrichment plants now is the complexity of the process. But once SILEX is demonstrated, other nations with deep pockets are bound to follow, say Mr. Sokolski and others.

"There can be little question that other states will be strongly encouraged to follow this lead and develop such technology for their own use," warned nonproliferation experts in the letter to the NRC. "Given the great difficulty of detecting laser isotope enrichment facilities, their spread could undermine US nonproliferation efforts."

Efforts to use lasers to enrich uranium date back at least four decades. A fiendishly difficult technology, laser isotope separation has worked at the laboratory level but has confounded efforts by at least 20 countries to make it work on a commercial scale, says Charles Ferguson, president of the Federation of American Scientists in Washington, a signatory to the letter to the NRC.

If laser enrichment works, at least a half-dozen countries that have tried it before – including Russia, France, and Brazil – would be likely to try it again, he and others say.

"There are many, many things you have to figure out" to make laser ­enrichment work, says Jeffrey Eer­kens, a laser expert in northern Cali­fornia, one of only a few researchers familiar with SILEX who can speak on the record about it. Acquiring a powerful enough infrared laser was a hurdle in the past, but may be no longer, he says. "If these companies do it," Dr. Eer­kens says, "it's only a matter of time before others figure it out, too. At that point, you might as well forget about stopping it."

NRC could step in to evaluate

While many experts call for formal evaluation of SILEX for its impact on proliferation, that's not part of the NRC's mandate, documents show. But a senior NRC official says the commission has evaluated nuclear fuel programs for their proliferation resistance in the past and still could evaluate SILEX's.

"It is certainly well within our authority as a regulator," NRC Chairman Gregory Jaczko told the Monitor in a phone interview. "There may be some other areas [besides those currently being evaluated that] the commission will take a look into."

SILEX is moving ahead fast. The critical "Phase 1 test loop" designed to demonstrate the technology's commercial viability is complete, GE-Hitachi's Fuller said last month. GLE applied last year for a commercial license that the NRC could grant as early as January 2012, after which construction could begin.

Commercial use would validate the technology and make it "much more difficult to dissuade other countries from acquiring this technology, and may be used as a justification by countries seeking to hide their enrichment activities," experts warned the NRC in the September letter.

Eerkens, who has been invited to attend a scientific conference in Russia on developments in laser enrichment, echoes that view.

"Yes, there are still engineering problems with SILEX," he says. "But they [GE-Hitachi] were satisfied that the pilot plant works, so now they're going big." He cautions, "Twenty years ago the Germans and everyone in the world were looking at this technology. They will be again, pretty soon."

Related:

Obama summit's goal: keep nuclear weapons away from terrorists

Can Moscow stop North Korea's nuclear march?

UN conference on nuclear proliferation a big test for Obama

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