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New health care bill pros and cons: Will it cut costs?

The Congressional Budget Office says the new health care bill will be deficit neutral. But economists aren't sure. What are the financial pros and cons of the bill?

By Staff writer / March 22, 2010

Rep. John Shadegg (R) of Arizona holds a news conference on Jan. 13 on Capitol Hill to make the case that there are hidden costs in the new health care bill. In general, forecasts are not categorical, pointing to both pros and cons for the legislation.

Tim Sloan/AFP

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The vote in the House of Representatives is over, but a key debate about the new health care bill remains: Will it cut America's medical bill?

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Here's a look at the pros and cons of how the reforms might affect the pocketbooks of Americans as taxpayers and as health care consumers.

By the broadest measure – the overall amount of money America spends on health care – the reforms will result in only a minor change compared with the rise that's expected to happen anyway, according to some official forecasts.

That's good, say the backers of reform. It shows that more than 30 million Americans can get health insurance by that year without adding to federal budget deficits.

But to critics, that's bad. It shows that the reforms won't fundamentally change the runaway pace of US health spending – including both public- and private-sector dollars.

With or without reform, the overall US medical bill will account for about 21 percent of gross domestic product in 2019, or 3 percentage points higher than today, according to a recent analysis done within the Health and Human Services Department. (See story with graphic on "How Obama plan might work".)

Pro: Reform will push costs down

Backers of health care reform say it will expand insurance coverage to more Americans while also tightening the reins on medical inflation. A Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report on Saturday, just before the House narrowly approved the reform bill, said the measure will insure 32 million more people in 2019.

The expansion of coverage would cost the government an extra $172 billion in that year, the CBO says, or about $5,375 per person newly insured. Most of that spending is the result of a boost in eligibility for Medicaid or of subsidies to help families comply with a new mandate to buy insurance coverage if they don't have it.

Supporters say the expanded coverage is a bargain if you consider the reform's wider framework, including curbs on the growth of Medicare spending. In 2019, when the law's key provisions have taken full effect, the nation's overall spending on health care will be just $25 billion more than if no health care bill had been passed.

In effect, the plan would be covering many more people at about the same price: $4.7 trillion in that year. That estimate comes from Richard Foster, chief actuary for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

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