Food prices ease, but thriftier shopping habits remain
The slow economy has sustained a trend to home-cooked comfort food.
Last summer's sky-high food and gas prices changed Brian Bintner's lifestyle dramatically.Skip to next paragraph
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At first, Mr. Bintner resented the intrusion of a topsy-turvy economy on his urbane existence. But now, even though prices are dropping, he's decided to stay his humble course: "I'm kind of enjoying eating at home, and doing my laundry afterwards."
Bintner's conversion from man-about-town to hearth-hugger explains, at least in part, why Americans – including the 3.6 million who lost their job in the last year – continue to trade down their eating adventures even as overall food prices declined for the second month in a row.
To be sure, the adjustment to recessionary foodstuffs like canned tuna and tagliatelle is an uncomfortable, even maddening, one for many Americans.
But with time being the sole luxury of the underemployed, downward pressure on raw food cost is part of a societal return to comfort grub and family sit-down dinners. Hence, farmers, food suppliers, and grocery stores are now scrambling to meet Americans where they eat.
"First you conclude you can't afford to go out to dinner, so you go to the store to buy a rotisserie chicken," says David Diamond, a grocery store consultant in New York City. "The next time, you realize that chicken was $5.99 and raw chicken is $2.99. How hard is cooking it anyway, particularly if you don't have anything to do this afternoon? It's definitely a short-term reversal of long-term trends."
From Houston to Boston, whole milk and chicken tenders are both cheaper today than a year ago. Sirloin prices are sliding. Feed corn – the anchor of the US breadbasket – is down by 20 percent or more in some states since last summer.
As a result, the percentage of New Yorkers concerned about high food prices has dwindled from 73 percent in July 2008 to 65 percent this month, according to the Siena Research Institute in Loudonville, N.Y.
Shoppers can expect the price of necessities ranging from margarine to M&Ms to flatten, even decline, as last year's 18-year high of 6.6 percent food-at-home inflation ratchets down to a more manageable 2 percent in 2009, says Ephraim Leibtag, an economist at the US Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service in Washington. How much that will help stressed-out families depends on whether they have the extra time to take advantage of cheaper raw goods.
"In the extreme case of unemployment, there's definitely a substitution from convenience-added foods to more time-intensive ones where you spend an afternoon making dinner and buying ingredients," says Mr. Leibtag. "On the flip side ... maybe people are working as hard with equal or less pay and don't have an option to spend more time" cooking at home.
That stark reality is hardly comforting to those who've seen their prospects for both career advancement and rib-eye steaks diminish. Since he lost his job six months ago, Atlanta pipe fitter James Godfrey says hamburger and pork have replaced steaks and chicken in his grocery cart. "I can't afford to buy what I want anymore," he says.