Binary bump: How a new 'star' could appear in our night sky in five years

Two stars in the binary star system KIC 9832227 may collide sometime in 2022, creating a red nova that would be visible to the naked eye some 1,800 lightyears away.

|
REUTERS/NASA, ESA/Handout/File
An artist's concept is shown in this NASA handout released on March 18, 2013 shows the star V838 Mon. Mon's outer surface suddenly greatly expanded with the result that it became the brightest star in the entire Milky Way Galaxy in January 2002. Then, just as suddenly, it faded. A stellar flash like this had never been seen before -- supernovas and novas expel matter out into space.

In 2022, a new, temporary star of sorts could be added to the night sky.

A group of astronomers has predicted that, five years from now, two faraway binary stars currently orbiting each other will collide, creating an explosion so bright that it will be visible to the naked eye. If accurate, the so-called "red nova" would be the first ever to be predicted by scientists on Earth.

By studying the stars in these final years before the predicted collision, scientists hope to be able to gather valuable information on how binary stars behave in their final years before this kind of explosion. Such observations could provide valuable insights into certain universal mechanisms that are not yet fully understood by astronomers.

The story of the 2022 prediction actually starts in 2008, when a star known as V1309 Scorpii suddenly exploded, temporarily brightening considerably in the night sky. While similar bright explosions had happened before, incidental observations of the binary star system had been made before the explosion actually occurred, revealing some unusual patterns in how the stars moved around each other before they collided.

In 2013, Larry Molnar, an astronomer at Calvin College in Grand Rapids, Michigan, began a study of a binary star system known as KIC 9832227 when it was found that the star's orbital period, the length of time it takes for a star to make one complete orbit around another object, was slightly less than earlier observational data had indicated. Dr. Molnar noticed that the V1309 Scorpii data leading up to the nova was strikingly similar to what was happening to KIC 9832227. He hypothesized that the degradation in the orbital period would soon collapse completely, causing a massive collision. Over the next few years, he was able to develop a more precise date for the event: sometime in 2022.

"If Larry's prediction is correct, his project will demonstrate for the first time that astronomers can catch certain binary stars in the act of dying, and that they can track the last few years of a stellar death spiral up to the point of final, dramatic explosion," said Matt Walhout, dean for research and scholarship at Calvin College, in a statement.

This "death spiral" will likely end in a "lumnious red nova." As implied by its name, these types of stellar explosions are red in color, and are thought to be caused by this kind of binary collision. The nova would increase the stars' brightness by about 1,000 times, and would theoretically become visible to the naked eye on Earth.

"The project is significant not only because of the scientific results, but also because it is likely to capture the imagination of people on the street," said Walhout in the statement. "If the prediction is correct, then for the first time in history, parents will be able to point to a dark spot in the sky and say, 'Watch, kids, there’s a star hiding in there, but soon it's going to light up.'"

Technically, for the stars' collision to be visible from Earth in 2022, the red nova would have taken place nearly 1,800 years ago, as the star is about 1,800 light-years away from our planet. But since there is no way to observe a nova without light, it will be impossible to know for sure when the collision occurred until the light reaches us.

"It's a one-in-a-million chance that you can predict an explosion," Molnar said in the statement. "It's never been done before."

Even if the explosion never happens, scientists are often able to learn just as much, if not more, from an incorrect hypothesis than they can from a correct one. But Molnar's team is hoping for the best, planning to continue monitoring KIC 9832227 closely over the next five years in order to better understand the events leading up to the nova. 

"At this point we have now made over 33,000 images of the star with Calvin College telescopes on more than 170 nights of observing," Molnar told Vox. "In a sense, that investment is my bet that this is going to be worthwhile."

You've read  of  free articles. Subscribe to continue.
Real news can be honest, hopeful, credible, constructive.
What is the Monitor difference? Tackling the tough headlines – with humanity. Listening to sources – with respect. Seeing the story that others are missing by reporting what so often gets overlooked: the values that connect us. That’s Monitor reporting – news that changes how you see the world.

Dear Reader,

About a year ago, I happened upon this statement about the Monitor in the Harvard Business Review – under the charming heading of “do things that don’t interest you”:

“Many things that end up” being meaningful, writes social scientist Joseph Grenny, “have come from conference workshops, articles, or online videos that began as a chore and ended with an insight. My work in Kenya, for example, was heavily influenced by a Christian Science Monitor article I had forced myself to read 10 years earlier. Sometimes, we call things ‘boring’ simply because they lie outside the box we are currently in.”

If you were to come up with a punchline to a joke about the Monitor, that would probably be it. We’re seen as being global, fair, insightful, and perhaps a bit too earnest. We’re the bran muffin of journalism.

But you know what? We change lives. And I’m going to argue that we change lives precisely because we force open that too-small box that most human beings think they live in.

The Monitor is a peculiar little publication that’s hard for the world to figure out. We’re run by a church, but we’re not only for church members and we’re not about converting people. We’re known as being fair even as the world becomes as polarized as at any time since the newspaper’s founding in 1908.

We have a mission beyond circulation, we want to bridge divides. We’re about kicking down the door of thought everywhere and saying, “You are bigger and more capable than you realize. And we can prove it.”

If you’re looking for bran muffin journalism, you can subscribe to the Monitor for $15. You’ll get the Monitor Weekly magazine, the Monitor Daily email, and unlimited access to CSMonitor.com.

QR Code to Binary bump: How a new 'star' could appear in our night sky in five years
Read this article in
https://www.csmonitor.com/Science/Spacebound/2017/0108/Binary-bump-How-a-new-star-could-appear-in-our-night-sky-in-five-years
QR Code to Subscription page
Start your subscription today
https://www.csmonitor.com/subscribe