Is the X-37B a prelude to space warfare?
The X-37B, A U.S. Air Force space raises concerns about weapons in space. While its exact purpose remains unclear, it joins a host of new space technology that could usher in a new era of space warfare.
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"The whole issue is further complicated because beyond technologies like lasers, Rods from God, explosives, etc.... virtually any object traveling in space can be a weapon if it can be maneuvered to run into another object," Johnson-Freese told SPACE.com.Skip to next paragraph
In Pictures The X-37 space plane
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Uncertainty matters a great deal for how other nations view the recent U.S. space plane and hypersonic glider tests, regardless of whether or not the technologies lead to future weapons.
"They are testing capabilities that could certainly be useful to the military if it chose to use them in an offensive manner," Johnson-Freese said. "And the military has been silent on intent."
Intrigue and deception
Pike said the current work under way by the U.S. military leaves plenty of room for misinterpretations or even outright deception, which could be a ploy to distract other nations with military space projects.
"One of them could be a deception program and the other could be the spitting image of the real thing," Pike noted. He said that such misdirection could force other nations' militaries to waste money chasing down dead ends.
Both the Air Force space plane and DARPA's hypersonic glider may have a combined budget of several hundred million dollars per year, Pike estimated. He described such spending as "chump change" compared to the Pentagon's black budget spending in recent years of $6 billion to $8 billion annually — and he pointed to decades worth of known space plane programs which had amounted to little.
"I conclude that the hypersonic trans-atmospheric space plane domain is either unusually badly managed even for government programs, or there's a lot of hocus pocus here," Pike said. "I defy anyone to tell the difference between hocus pocus and mismanagement."
Of course, the U.S. military could theoretically make good use of either the X-47B or HTV-2. An operational space plane could launch quickly as a replacement for recon satellites disabled in the opening salvoes of a conflict, and could "play hide and seek" to avoid being shot down easily. Similarly, a hypersonic aircraft or weapon might allow the U.S. to eliminate threats early on without warning.
Walking the line on weapon bans
The double-edged nature of space technologies has also complicated international efforts to ban entire classes of technologies which might serve as space weapons. Instead, there has been interest in "more modest proposals that focus on behavior, rather than what you are allowed to build or test," said Karl Mueller, a political scientist at the RAND Corporation.
Military use of space looks likely to expand, according to the experts. But Mueller explained that the U.S. military's interest in space has less to do with the dazzling futuristic visions of space planes and more to do with "unglamorous" satellites and orbital sensor systems. Such technologies give situational awareness of all the satellites, spacecraft and debris in orbit.
One such example is the $800 million Space Based Space Surveillance satellite slated for launch in July. It carries an optical telescope to help Air Force ground-based radars track the growing orbital traffic of satellites and space debris — a goal which everyone can appreciate.
"That's true whether you're hawkish and enthusiastic about using force in space, or whether you're dovish and want to maintain the sanctuary of space and maximize peaceful spacefaring," Mueller said.
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