On emissions, G-8 looks past Bush

But, he adds, the science has signaled that strong steps need to be taken in the next 10 to 15 years if that longer-term goal is to be achieved. The EU already has set an interim target of reducing carbon-dioxide emissions to 20 percent below 1990 levels by 2020. More broadly, the Bali Road Map points to a need for between 25 and 40 percent cuts in CO2 emissions by then.

Unless industrial countries commit to a specific, binding interim target range, developing countries won’t sign off on the longer-term goal.

Such interim targets “are an essential step to unlock the waiting game,” says Peter Frumhoff, director of science and policy for the Union of Concerned Scientists.

Even then, the goals may not be aggressive enough. Over the past several months, James Hansen, with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, has been arguing that to avoid the most destabilizing effects of global warming, atmospheric concentrations of CO2 must be cut far lower than the levels UN negotiators are discussing. To stand an even chance of holding warming to no more than 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F.) by century’s end, UN negotiators are talking about stabilizing atmospheric CO2 levels at 450 parts per million. To avoid dangerous climate tipping points, Dr. Hansen now argues, the world should be aiming at 350 p.p.m. or less. Today’s level stands at about 385 p.p.m.

Meanwhile, during an interview appearing in the latest issue of Prospect Magazine, published in Britain, economist Lord Stern acknowledges that his controversial 2006 report on the economics of climate-change mitigation probably underestimated the cost and difficulty of dealing with global warming. The reasons: The economics studies his über-report relied on underestimated growth in greenhouse-gas emissions so far this decade, and they overestimated the oceans’ capacity to scrub CO2 from the atmosphere.
Indeed, the G-8 results suggest “that the political process is still well behind the science in terms of stepping up to the issue at the scale needed,” Mr. Bradley of the World Resources Institute says, at least at the international level.

That could change with a new administration and sufficient support in Congress. In the US, “there is a much greater cross section of public and political support for action” on climate change, says Dr. Frumhoff, noting that such support is far greater today than in 1992 or 1997.

Still, he adds, “we don’t have many more bites at this apple,” given that the costs of mitigation rise with time as greenhouse gases continue to build in the atmosphere. As a result, “there is a lot of hope pinned on the next administration, particularly the first year to 18 months, to give this a very high priority, given the Copenhagen process and the urgency of reducing emissions.”

Material from the wire services were used in this report.

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