Georgia on Obama's mind?

But this is not all. This week, Russia undertook its biggest military exercise since the fall of the Soviet Union – 8,500 troops involving the Army, Air Force, and Navy, all moving in the volatile Caucasus area and just a stone's throw from Georgia. Moscow says it's responding to May's NATO exercises in Georgia – which itself is facing internal protests over the government's handling of the recent war.

The West is trying to sweep this time bomb under the rug as if it were a dust bunny. Indeed, NATO last week relaunched its "partnership" with Russia after putting it on ice after the war. And then there's President Obama's coming bear hug with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.

The harsh geopolitical calculus is this: Russia is worth more to the West as a potential partner on such issues as terrorism, Afghanistan, nuclear nonproliferation, Iran, North Korea, climate change, and the global economy, than is the tiny state of Georgia and its democratic yearnings.

That may indeed be the correct – if callous – calculus. Certainly neither the US nor its NATO allies were willing to intervene militarily last summer. And they would be unlikely to do so should Russia move to actually take Georgia or somehow install a puppet regime, as some suspect it is preparing to do.

But Russia's brutish stance toward Georgia should serve as a clear warning that a warmer relationship may not pay off, as the West, or Mr. Obama, hopes. It also shows that Moscow does not share the same values as the West. It prefers secrecy to transparency, threat to persuasion. It views democracy as a danger, not a stabilizer.

At the same time, can Washington even be sure that Moscow shares its interests? A nuclear arms reduction deal is likely to come out of this visit, and that's a good thing. Progress is also being made on counter-terrorism cooperation in Afghanistan. But it looks like Russia doesn't perceive Iran – with which it has strong economic ties – as such an alarming threat.

Moscow, for instance, wants to sell S-300 missiles to Iran. The S-300 can shoot down cruise missiles and aircraft that are 120 miles distant, and it makes Israel very, very nervous. Might Israel take preemptive action before Iran gets the S-300? Russia argues that these missiles are defensive in nature.

Two military heavyweights like Russia and the US should be talking to each other, not throwing eggs. The outreach by Washington is to be encouraged. But eyes should be wide open about the possibility of rebuilding a relationship when one party is keen on change while the other is sticking to its bellicose, arm-twisting ways. Georgia serves as the reminder of the limitations of a "reset" strategy.

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