US must not miss new opportunity to engage with Iran

None of this is surprising. Overcoming three decades of accumulated enmity and surmounting the great wall of mistrust between the US and Iran will not be easy. Priorities, however, must be clear.

If the main US policy objective is to ensure that Iran steers clear of a nuclear breakout capability, Rouhani’s insider credentials should be welcomed. A moderate voice on the nuclear issue that still holds some sway within the regime is more likely to deliver on a nuclear compromise than a regime critic who would be stymied at every turn, destined to wage a losing fight.

While Rouhani – like other Iranian presidents – doesn’t have final say on foreign policy matters, the president’s tone and team will affect the diplomatic process. A simple comparison of Iran’s foreign and nuclear policies under presidents Mohammad Khatami and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad should be proof enough.

Finally, even if charges about Rouhani’s background are accurate, they should not block the diplomatic path as America has never shied away from negotiating with leaders boasting imperfect pasts when national interest has obliged. 

Instead of just playing a waiting game, Washington should give engagement with Iran a second try. To this end, the Obama administration should signal a shift in style, substance, and strategy.

To change the style, Obama could send a public message on the new president’s inauguration day – August 3, 2013. The message should contain no negative qualifiers, but remain sober. Some text along the lines of the French foreign ministry’s announcement on the occasion of Rouhani’s election will go a long way. I would suggest something like the following:

"The expectations of the international community of Iran are significant, especially about its nuclear program and its involvement in Syria. We are ready to work with Mr. Rouhani’s government to resolve these issues."

To be sure, Obama might be criticized for endorsing Iran’s faulty electoral process. But this can be easily brushed off given that the majority of Iran’s population opted to take part in the poll and that most US allies in the region don’t even hold elections. In addition to the public letter, the US president should send another private one to the Supreme Leader, making clear that Washington does not aim at bypassing him and is ready for talks based on a comprehensive agenda.

To change the substance, in coordination with allies, the US should chart a roadmap – beyond the initial confidence building steps – that would sequence the lifting of sanctions in a manner commensurate to desired Iranian nuclear concessions. It will be a waste of precious time to wait idly for Rouhani’s first step, without having thought through a few steps ahead.

It is also important to showcase commitment to diplomacy by avoiding any additional sanctions legislation. Four are currently in the pipeline, and Congress likely will resist administration pleas to forestall them given that it appears unmoved by Rouhani’s victory. The problem is that additional sanctions pressure will be interpreted by Iran as yet another effort to promote regime change, will be used by Tehran’s conservative elements to argue against any opening offered by Rouhani, and thus obstruct the possibility of holding genuine talks.

To demonstrate a different strategy in which Washington is willing to forge an agreement with Tehran, the Obama administration should reverse its objection to Iranian participation at the Geneva 2 conference on the future of Syria. The decision can be justified by Tehran’s new political face. By now, it is clear that the Syrian crisis might not be resolved by including Iran, but it certainly will not be resolved by excluding Tehran.

Implementing all or some of these measures might seem too cumbersome, but that is only until one considers the alternative – another war in the Middle East. Obama’s predecessors seldom cultivated an opportunity with Iran until that opportunity had ceased to exist. With some audacious leadership, this time could be different.

Ali Vaez is the International Crisis Group’s senior Iran analyst.

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