Policy options must be designed with the perspectives and motivations of the adversary leaders in mind. The last thing strategic plans should do is cause adversary leaders to believe the use of nuclear weapons is their first, best option.
Military responses designed to deter and defeat specific acts of aggression in general would be a good start. Conventional strikes on selected targets directly associated with the military operations of threat countries such as North Korea might also be called for. In addition, the placement of theater missile defense systems will likely be reassuring to US allies and would provide some protection for US forces.
Every scenario is different; some hostile actions by Pyongyang may be blustery displays of strength aimed at internal audiences, while others may be serious threats to regional security. This is where finesse may outperform force. The US, working closely with its allies, should approach each potential conflict with North Korea in its own context, sculpting policy that draws on experience as well as observations made through research. The stakes could hardly be higher.
Lowell Schwartz is a political scientist at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation and co-author of “The Challenge of Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries.”
