Some events are different. They puncture through the equilibrium of American politics and alter the political order. The Newtown massacre, unlike the bloodshed at Virginia Tech, Aurora, or Arizona, is still resonating with the public. We still read stories of what exactly the bullets sprayed from an assault rifle did to 20 young children.
And unlike those past mass-shooting tragedies, the full force of the American presidency will be harnessed to keep the memory of the Newtown children alive. With the help of the Obama White House, the families of the fallen will be with us for months, and the NRA will have a tough time opposing their impassioned grief.
The real battle: 2015
All of this points towards an Obama victory on background checks before the 2014 elections. Other items on the White House-led gun-control agenda aren't likely to be passed in a Republican-controlled House this term. But Obama is smart enough to know this. What he may hope to do is to win on background checks this session, and then ask the American people to put a new Congress in place in the 2014 mid-term elections. If the Democrats control both houses in 2015, they could pass a ban on assault weapons and high capacity magazines.
Given that presidents usually get shellacked in the midterm of their second term, as happened with Reagan, Bush, Eisenhower, Nixon, and even FDR, this is a tall order for Obama and his party. But if the voters respond to the new dynamic in gun control, then the real battle on guns will begin in 2015.
Jeremy D. Mayer is an associate professor in the School of Public Policy at George Mason University where he also directs the masters program in public policy.
