Why Syria's regional spillovers could prompt intervention (+video)

Third, the Syrian crisis is spilling across the border as refugees also pour into neighboring Lebanon and Jordan, and skirmishes occur in both countries. The US has had a small group of military planners in Jordan since early summer, to help that country with refugees and its own military, and to keep an eye on Syria’s chemical weapons.

The crisis, though, could well reach Europe’s doorstep in the Eastern Mediterranean – casting a harsh light on unresolved disputes hobbling European and American strategy there. The porous nature of the land and sea borders in the region means that large numbers of Syrian refugees may soon appear in Cyprus and Greece, where anti-immigrant sentiment runs high. In this sense, Europe already shares a border with a chaotic Syria. 

Dealing with any violent and nonviolent spillovers will be difficult in the absence of cooperation among Cyprus, Greece, Turkey, and their European and transatlantic partners. In theory, the rotating presidency of the European Union – currently held by Cyprus –  should facilitate preparation for an eastward spread of the Syrian crisis. But the unresolved dispute over divided Cyprus makes any sort of Cypriot-Turkish coordination impossible, and also hampers Turkish-EU and EU-NATO cooperation on security in the Eastern Mediterranean. 

Once again, the Cyprus divide has acquired a regional security dimension. Even Russia, hardly enthusiastic about action in Syria, but with strong interests in the Balkans and the Eastern Mediterranean, might eventually see the logic of action to contain these regional risks.

The debate over intervention in Syria is anything but straightforward. In the wake of Afghanistan and Iraq, the sheer complexity of the ethnic and sectarian cleavages in Syria deters Western policymakers.

Public opinion is ambivalent at best. The 2012 Transatlantic Trends survey, conducted by the German Marshall Fund of the United States with the Compagnia di San Paolo, shows that majorities on both sides of the Atlantic, including Turkey, support the UN “right to protect” in international crises. But when asked about the Syrian case, majorities reject intervention.

As the crisis in Syria worsens, and the regional consequences mount, Syria’s dangerous spillovers may well compel a strategy of simply containing the war within Syria’s borders, even as the debate on intervention for “regime change” leaves the international community divided.

Ian O. Lesser is executive director of the Transatlantic Center, the Brussels office of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

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