Can war with Iran can be avoided? In recent talks with the West in Baghdad, Iran showed some greater flexibility about its nuclear program. But Iran has a history of trickery in the nuclear arena. Whether Tehran will cooperates with Western demands depends on the following six factors.
Iran is pressured by lower oil prices. They accentuate the pain of existing sanctions and make it harder for it to meet budgetary targets, especially at prices now well below $100 per barrel.
There’s not much the West can do here, for now. Decreasing global oil dependence would help temper oil prices and is a smart, peaceful strategy against an oil-rich nuclear proliferator. But such comprehensive energy policy shifts are hard to bring about and will take years to accomplish, even with good leadership.