North Korea rocket launch: Why Kim failed the test

This makes him useful as a legitimizing front man for the cabal of his father’s relatives and trusted friends that really runs the country. But if, however, there is a subterranean leadership struggle, Kim Jong Un’s failure to properly honor his grandfather with the rocket launch will not strengthen his mandate to rule the country.

DPRK propaganda can claim Washington is the villain in this scenario because the Americans reneged on the Feb. 29 agreement. However, this argument will hardly overturn widespread global sentiment that the Pyongyang regime is despicable and dangerous.

Pyongyang has argued that yesterday’s launch involved a civilian rocket, not a ballistic missile (forbidden by a 2009 UN Security Council resolution). Only a few observers bought that argument. The United States and many other governments took the position that the satellite launch was tantamount to a missile test. Even Russia, which has been almost as soft on Pyongyang as China, had called on North Korea not to go ahead with the launch.

After a period of provocations in 2010, Pyongyang made clear in 2011 its desire to resume negotiations with the US, although most analysts suspected the objective was to press for more concessions (such as economic handouts and recognition as a nuclear weapons state) and not to bargain away its nuclear weapons program. The unsuccessful launch increases the chances that Pyongyang will return to its provocation mode.

The American sense is that the North Koreans have just exhibited extraordinarily bad faith by concluding an agreement they planned to sabotage a few days later. Instead of a fresh start with a new leader, it appears that Kim Jong Il is still making North Korean policy from the grave.

This will slow meaningful US-North Korea re-engagement, especially with the Obama administration’s desire to avoid a new foreign policy gaffe (such as appearing soft or naive) before the US elections.

But the failure of the rocket is also a setback to North Korea’s effort to gain a credible deterrent against US or South Korean attack by deploying nuclear-armed ballistic missiles.

This third DPRK attempt at a multi-stage rocket flight follows similar failures in 1998 and 2009. The leadership in Pyongyang may fear that adversaries will see this high-profile bust as a sign of weakness, prompting the regime to compensate for this increased vulnerability with an intimidating show of strength.

The rocket launch was not only a technical failure for North Korea, but also a profound failure of political vision. Thus far the reign of Kim Jong Un seems to spell continued misery for the North Korean people and peril for their neighbors.

Denny Roy is a senior fellow at the East-West Center. A specialist in Asia-Pacific security issues, Mr. Roy is working on a book about the impact of China's rise on regional security.

Previous

1 | 2