Three factors that will determine Syria’s future

Much of the analysis of the crisis in Syria looks at the upheaval through a binary lens: Either Bashar al-Assad manages to defeat his political opponents and his regime survives, or the regime collapses and a new political leadership takes control of the country.

But there is a third, increasingly more realistic, possibility – quagmire, says Benedetta Berti, a fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies of Tel Aviv University. That means prolonged internal violence under a weakened and failing – but neither defeated nor failed – Assad regime. 

Under this framework, a better question to ask about Syria’s future would be: How long can a regime function in this “failing state limbo,” and how long can it endure massive internal violence before imploding?

In Syria, the answer depends on these three main factors: