Turkey's bold about-face on Syria
Turkey's support for Syrian insurgents reverses detente with Damascus. Its about-face can reinforce an Arab League agreement with Syria to end violence, and reassure the West of its commitment to NATO values. But is the break an exception, or a broad change in foreign policy?
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Now Turkey has advanced decisively beyond private criticism by leading the push for international action and sanctions against Damascus. Ankara is publicly hosting Syrian opposition leaders along with insurgents who have based themselves within Turkey’s borders, and has reportedly been secretly arming the same forces. It’s preparing unilateral sanctions that go far beyond what any Western power has thus far attempted.Skip to next paragraph
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The breakdown in Syrian relations is having a precipitously negative affect on Turkey’s ties with neighbor Iran, its chief rival – but also important economic partner – for influence in the region. Add to that Turkey’s decision to host NATO radar installations aimed at Iran, and Turkey’s interests are now much more convergent with the West.
Is Syria an exception, or a policy shift?
The crucial question now is whether Ankara’s turning on Syria is an exception tied to Turkey’s national interests, or whether it’s the start of a foreign-policy realignment that tries to democratize the region to support more Arab awakenings.
Turkish-Syrian relations have oscillated wildly over the years. Given the countries’ extensive shared border, security self-interest may be the overriding motive for this departure from detente. Turks suspect that last month’s well-coordinated attack by Kurdish PKK terrorists in Turkey was supported by Syria as a throwback to the 1990s, when Damascus hosted the PKK leader as leverage against Turkey.
On the other hand, Muslim-majority Turkey’s credibility as a democratic model for the region is being put on the line with every suppressed Syrian protest and refugee who flees to Turkey. Prime Minister Erdogan also recognizes Turkey’s historic opportunity: “Turkey is playing a role that can upturn all the stones in the region and that can change the course of history.”
While traditional Turkish foreign policy has been conservative and inward focused, a “new” Turkey that boasts the fastest growing and largest economy in the region has far more tools to push a democracy agenda. As a result of its own process of reform, it is uniquely placed to play a decisive role in assisting and encouraging emerging democracies with its vibrant civil society and private sector.
Turkey may still have serious problems with its allies in the West – for instance, its accession to the European Union is stalled. But with its break with Syria, it is now working from the same script as the United States and Europe.
From the point of view of Turkey’s Western allies, there is more reason than ever to refocus on Ankara’s value as a strategic, economic, and diplomatic bridge between Europe and the Middle East, pointing the way from autocracy to democracy.
Joshua W. Walker is a Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund.