In Asia, the US should look beyond China and India
Future opportunity for US growth depends on whether President Obama focuses on Southeast Asia, not just China and India.
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Major milestones come from those summits: (1) effective regional economic integration – ASEAN now has free-trade agreements with all of the aforementioned countries, (2) the beginning of regional security architecture, and (3) transnational issues – such as climate change and nuclear nonproliferation.Skip to next paragraph
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If the US is absent, it could be excluded from a future Asian “consensus” on such key issues.
If he attends, however, Obama could continue to rack up support for America’s positions.
He could also make substantial progress on trade, by supporting increased ASEAN involvement in the Transpacific Partnership – one of very few trade arrows in the administration’s quiver. Doing so would link US economic growth to Asia, which is expected to grow at more than two times the rate of the Western economies over the next several years, according to the World Bank.
By initiating the first US-ASEAN Summit, Obama laid down a clear marker that America recognized its significant stake in Southeast Asia and wasn’t ceding the region to China’s nouveau Monroe Doctrine.
He also set the stage for working with the region’s leaders on key issues such as climate change, fighting terrorism, and creating a channel for US assistance supporting the development of regional standards – a key factor for US exports and investments in the region.
The organizers of the summit are currently holding off on setting a date until they hear from the US president. It’s worth fitting into his heavy schedule:
At the very least Obama could convince the ASEAN leaders to meet him in Hanoi, Vietnam, after the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in Japan in November. That way he would reinforce the reformers in Vietnam who are facing stiff competition from the hyperconservative elders of the Communist Party there. By following through on his commitment for the US to remain engaged in Southeast Asia he would prove the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and reactionary analysts in Beijing wrong.
Another option is to invite the ASEAN leaders to Washington or Hawaii to hold the US-ASEAN Leaders Summit on American soil before or after they visit the US for the annual United Nations General Assembly meeting in September.
A third option is to piggyback on his visits to Indonesia, Australia, and Guam in June or to India in October.
If Obama failed to show up it would be a serious blow to relations in Asia.
It would not only fulfill predictions made by interlocutors in China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs that the US is only rhetorically, not substantively, committed to the region, but it would fuel ASEAN’s anxieties about the reliability of the US as a forward-deployed partner in the Pacific.
Following through on his overtures in Asia is core to sustaining a serious US presence in the region. Making time for the ASEAN summit, may seem like a small thing, but Obama’s attendance would benefit the US in the long run.