Africa's new threat: Sudan at flash point

Complicating the political situation, national elections for all government offices are also fast approaching. Though scheduled for April 2010, deliberate delays by Khartoum have made them logistically impossible. Signs already indicate that these elections will not be free and fair but rather an occasion for the regime to use its control of the electoral machinery and its vast patronage system in an effort to retain power and to regain international legitimacy.

Indeed, electoral interference has already begun in earnest. The Carter Center, for example, reports that its election monitors have not been accredited to observe the huge voter registration drive now under way.

Although the leadership in South Sudan has made its share of mistakes, it is not guilty of the massive bad faith that we see from Khartoum. Still, the reason Sudan is poised to explode lies in international failure to hold the regime to benchmarks and commitments that are clearly spelled out in the 2005 agreement, and others.

What should the international community do?

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton announced a Sudan policy last month that aims for "a definitive end to conflict, gross human rights abuses, and genocide in Darfur" and "implementation of the CPA that results in a peaceful post-2011 Sudan or an orderly transition to two separate and viable states."

Confidential punitive and encouraging measures targeting Khartoum supposedly provide the leverage for these goals. But while this policy might be fine in the abstract, the notion that the US can fine-tune selective unilateral pressures and incentives in a way that will change the regime's behavior in time to create a conducive electoral environment and avert war seems dangerously naive.

US pressures and incentives must be accompanied by corresponding diplomatic investment in moving key international actors to demand that Khartoum fulfill its obligations under the peace agreement. An arms embargo on all of Sudan is a key first source of leverage, especially since China is the primary supplier of weapons that clearly violate the current UN arms embargo on Darfur.

The European Union should do more to squeeze commercial and capital investments benefiting only the northern economy, and to end violations of its own arms embargo on Sudan. Britain and Norway were both instrumental in negotiating the 2005 peace agreement, and should be pushed to serve as guarantors for its implementation. Kenya was also a key CPA negotiating partner and has a clear interest in preventing resumption of war to its north.

Unfortunately, the African Union Peace and Security Commission has been ineffective in confronting Khartoum over its failures to honor the CPA; it must be made to see how disastrous resumed conflict in Sudan would be for the credibility of the organization.

Only concerted, energetic international action in the near term – ideally coordinated through the United Nations Security Council – can improve the likelihood that the peace agreement will survive and avert a further slide toward war.

Eric Reeves is author of "A Long Day's Dying: Critical Moments in the Darfur Genocide."

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Read more on Sudan:

Obama launches new 'integrated' approach to Sudan

Aid groups return to Darfur – with new names

Opinion: Stand up to Sudan's thugs

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