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Global Viewpoint

How China will -- and won't -- change the world

China's astonishing urbanization could bring a new era of supercities, but its cultural norms probably won't eclipse American dominance.

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The McKinsey Global Institute has projected 15 “supercities” for China with an average population of 25 million, or 11 “city-clusters” each with combined populations of more than 60 million.

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Unlike most countries, China is able to mount massive redevelopment projects because of the Communist re-concentration of land in the hands of the state. The great Chinese revolution was fundamentally about the ownership of land. This is the biggest difference between China and India. In India and most other parts of the world, land acquisition for large-scale projects is a very difficult and laborious process.

As the world looked to the US for new patterns of urban development in the 20th century with its very rational grid patterns, we will have to look to China for the cities of the 21st century.

Urbanization on such a colossal scale is reshaping Chinese culture, politics, and institutions. The Chinese Communist Party, which had its origins in Mao’s countryside, faces a huge challenge in the management of urban politics. From an urban population of 20 percent in Mao’s day, China is 40 percent urban today and, like all developed countries, will become 80 percent to 90 percent urban in a few decades’ time. Already, China has more mobile phones than anybody else and more Internet users than the US.

A meritocratic mandarinate

My third point is about China’s political culture. Over the centuries, a political culture has evolved in China that enables a continental-size nation to be governed through a bureaucratic elite. In the People’s Republic, the bureaucratic elite is the Communist Party. When working properly, the mandarinate is meritocratic and imbued with a deep sense of responsibility for the whole country.

Interestingly, during the Ming and Qing dynasties, there was a rule that no high official could serve within 400 miles of his birthplace so that he did not come under pressure to favor local interests. This would mean that for a place like Singapore, it would never be governed by Singaporeans. A few years ago, that rule was reintroduced to the People’s Republic.

In almost all cases today, the leader of a Chinese province – neither a party secretary nor governor – is not from that province unless it is an autonomous region, in which case the No. 2 job goes to a local, but never the No. 1 job.

Although politics in China will change radically as the country urbanizes in the coming decades, the core principle of a bureaucratic elite holding the entire country together is not likely to change. Too many state functions affecting the well-being of the country as a whole require central coordination. In its historical memory, a China divided always meant chaos, and chaos could last a long time.

China’s evolving democracy

China is experimenting with democracy at the lower levels of government because it acts as a useful check against abuse of power. However, at the level of cities and provinces, leaders are chosen from above after a careful canvassing of the views of peers and subordinates. As with socialism, China will evolve a form of “democracy with Chinese characteristics” quite different from Western liberal democracy. And, certainly, the current world crisis will convince the Chinese even more that they are right not to give up state control of the commanding heights of the economy.

With the world in turmoil, many developing countries are studying the Chinese system, wondering whether it might not offer them lessons on good governance. For the first time in a long time, the Western model has a serious competitor.

Like biological species, human ideas and systems are also subject to selection – through wars, revolutions, elections, economic crises, academic debates, and market competition. Those that survive and flourish should, we hope, raise civilization to a higher level.

China today is a key presence in this process of geo-civilizational evolution.

George Yeo is the foreign minister of Singapore. This essay, adapted from a recent talk at Cambridge University, will appear in the forthcoming fall issue of NPQ ( © 2010 GLOBAL VIEWPOINT NETWORK/TRIBUNE MEDIA SERVICES.