Census: Estimated year-to-year retail sales up by 2.6 percent

The US Census estimated that retail sales in January were $427.8 billion, an increase of about 2.6 percent over the same period last year.

|
SoldAtTheTop
According to the US Census, January retail sales rose an estimated 2.6 percent over the same period in 2013. The agency also noted that between December 2013 and January 2014, there was an estimated .4 percent drop in retail sales.

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest nominal read of retail sales for January showing a decrease of 0.4 percent from December, and a gain of 2.6 percent on a year-over-year basis on an aggregate of all items including food, fuel and healthcare services.
 
Nominal "discretionary" retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales climbed slightly, rising 0.02 percent from December but declining 1.06% below the level seen in January 2013 while, adjusting for inflation, “real” discretionary retail sales declined 0.28 percent on the month and falling 2.77 percent since January 2013.

On a “nominal” basis, there had appeared to be “rough correlation” between strong home value appreciation and strong retail spending preceding the housing bust and an even stronger correlation when home values started to decline.

The following chart shows the year-over-year change to nominal discretionary retail sales and the year-over-year change to nominal the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite home price index since 1993 and since 2000.

As you can see there is, at the very least, a coincidental change to home values and consumer spending during the boom and then the bust, but as home values have continued to decline, retail spending has remained low but has not continued to consistently contract.

Looking at the chart below (click for full-screen dynamic version), adjusted for inflation (CPI for retail sales, CPI “less shelter” for S&P/Case-Shiller Composite) the “rough correlation” between the year-over-year change to the “discretionary” retail sales series and the year-over-year S&P/Case-Shiller Composite series seems now even more significant.

You've read  of  free articles. Subscribe to continue.
Real news can be honest, hopeful, credible, constructive.
What is the Monitor difference? Tackling the tough headlines – with humanity. Listening to sources – with respect. Seeing the story that others are missing by reporting what so often gets overlooked: the values that connect us. That’s Monitor reporting – news that changes how you see the world.

Dear Reader,

About a year ago, I happened upon this statement about the Monitor in the Harvard Business Review – under the charming heading of “do things that don’t interest you”:

“Many things that end up” being meaningful, writes social scientist Joseph Grenny, “have come from conference workshops, articles, or online videos that began as a chore and ended with an insight. My work in Kenya, for example, was heavily influenced by a Christian Science Monitor article I had forced myself to read 10 years earlier. Sometimes, we call things ‘boring’ simply because they lie outside the box we are currently in.”

If you were to come up with a punchline to a joke about the Monitor, that would probably be it. We’re seen as being global, fair, insightful, and perhaps a bit too earnest. We’re the bran muffin of journalism.

But you know what? We change lives. And I’m going to argue that we change lives precisely because we force open that too-small box that most human beings think they live in.

The Monitor is a peculiar little publication that’s hard for the world to figure out. We’re run by a church, but we’re not only for church members and we’re not about converting people. We’re known as being fair even as the world becomes as polarized as at any time since the newspaper’s founding in 1908.

We have a mission beyond circulation, we want to bridge divides. We’re about kicking down the door of thought everywhere and saying, “You are bigger and more capable than you realize. And we can prove it.”

If you’re looking for bran muffin journalism, you can subscribe to the Monitor for $15. You’ll get the Monitor Weekly magazine, the Monitor Daily email, and unlimited access to CSMonitor.com.

QR Code to Census: Estimated year-to-year retail sales up by 2.6 percent
Read this article in
https://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Paper-Economy/2014/0214/Census-Estimated-year-to-year-retail-sales-up-by-2.6-percent
QR Code to Subscription page
Start your subscription today
https://www.csmonitor.com/subscribe