ECRI index weakens slightly
The Economic Cycle Research Institute's Weekly Leading Index weakened slightly, falling to 121.8 from last week resulting in the all important annualized “growth” component showing a value of -7.9 and continuing to suggest a recession call on the part of the ECRI’s economics staff.
This chart shows the growth of the Economic Cycle Research Institute's weekly index over the past decade.The index has turned notably negative which appears to be signaling that the probability of recession is high.
SoldAtTheTop
The latest release of the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) Weekly Leading Index weakened slightly falling to 121.8 from last week resulting in the all important annualized “growth” component showing a value of -7.9 and continuing suggest a recession call on the part of the ECRI’s economics staff .
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'SoldAtTheTop' is not a pessimist by nature but a true skeptic and realist who prefers solid and sustained evidence of fundamental economic recovery to 'Goldilocks,' 'Green Shoots,' 'Mustard Seeds,' and wholesale speculation.
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The chart above shows the ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index growth component since 2001.
Notice that this index has turned notably negative which, along with an erosion in many other key macro-economic series, appears to be signaling that the probability of recession is high.
For a very entertaining debate over the ECRI leading index and the recent recession call watch this clip of ECRI's Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan on CNBCs Squawk Box.
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